姚静 高庆九 俞小鼎 李萍云

摘要 利用常规资料、地面自动站资料、FY2E卫星TBB 资料（ 0.1°×0.1°）、西安多普勒天气雷达资料，采用天气动力学诊断方法和强天气分析技术对2015年5月7日的陕西省商洛地区强对流天气过程的大尺度环流背景、物理量场、中小尺度天气系统演变特征及规律进行分析。结果表明，强对流主要位于暖湿空气与干冷空气的交界处，地面温度、露点温度、海平面气压、风场分析清晰地反映出地面冷锋和低压倒槽的交汇区域，冷暖空气的过渡区对于强对流天气的落区判断有指示作用。中尺度天气系统发展的强盛程度通过TBB的时间演变图可以清楚地进行判断。强对流大多发生在TBB梯度大值区，冰雹云团大多产生在云团成熟期之前。多普勒天气雷达上的强回波结构对于预警有提前预判的提示作用。在此次致灾天气过程中，明显低层弱回波区和中高层的悬垂回波结构，中层强回波中心与低层位移达1.5 km左右，预示了降冰雹的潜势。45 dBz强度的回波延伸至9 km以上，这些指标对准确做出强对流天气预警有较好的指示意义。

关键词 强对流；TBB；雷达；地面能量比

中图分类号 S165+.2；P458.3 文献标识码 A 文章编号 0517-6611（2016）09-221-06

Abstract Based on conventional data， ground automatic station data， FY2E satellite TBB data（ 0.1°×0.1°）， Xi'an Doppler weather radar data， the large scale circulation background， physical quantity field， evolution features and law of small scale weather system were analyzed by using the weather dynamic diagnosis method and strong weather analysis technology in Shangluo of Shaanxi Province on May 7， 2015. The results showed that strong convection was mainly at the junction of warm air and cold air， ground temperature， dew point temperature， sea level pressure， wind field analysis， can clearly see the confluence area of surface cold front position and low pressure inverted trough. The development of mesoscale weather system can be clearly judged by the time evolution of TBB. Strong convection occurs mostly in the high value region of the TBB gradient， hail clouds are born before the maturity of cloud. String echo structure on Doppler weather radar plays an important role in early warning. The hail weather was formed in the lower layer and weak echo region in the middle high overhang echo structure， strong echo center and low layer displacement of about 1.5 km， indicating the potential drop of hail. The echo of 45dBz intensity was extended to above 9 km， and these indexes have good instruction significance for making strong convective weather warning.

Key words Strong convection； TBB； Radar； Ground energy ratio

強对流天气具有影响范围小、发展速度快、持续时间短的特点，它的发生伴有雷暴、短时暴雨、冰雹、大风等灾害性天气。强对流天气突发性、局地性很强，经常会造成非常严重的自然灾害。20世纪60～70年代，美国、日本在与大冰雹相关的超级单体风暴方面进行了深入的研究[1-5]，国内学者也针对风雹天气的特征和成因进行了大量分析，并得出了一些研究成果[6-8]。……