摘 要：在经济全球化的背景下，我国的跨境贸易规模日益扩大，较之国内较为成熟的供应链，跨境供应链的业务复杂性更高，不确定性较大。尤其在911事件后，受恐怖袭击威胁，欧美等发达国家加大进口货物的检查力度，对供应链提出了安全与便利的双重要求，更增加了通关时间的不确定性，导致供应商承诺交货期的可靠性降低。为此，考虑跨境供应链查验率等通关效率因素建立量化模型，对原有的最优承诺交货期进行重新优化，并求得最优通关预期时限和最优承诺交货期的解析解。进而结合目前发达国家海关对我国企业的供应链安全认证要求与通关便利政策，探讨企业增加投入提升信用等级时如何实现成本效益最大。最后通过数值分析验证了模型和算法的有效性。

关键词：承诺交货期；通关效率；跨境供应链

中图分类号：F273.7 文献标识码：A

Abstract： Under the background of global economic environment， the scale of cross-border trade in China is growing. The domestic supply chain is relatively stable， while the complexity and uncertain of cross-border supply chain are markedly increased. Especially after the 911 event， under the threat of terrorist attacks， EU and the United States therefore increased the inspection of imported goods， which put dual requirements of security and facilitation on the of supply chain. These factors increased the clearance time of variability， and affected the delivery time guarantees decision. Therefore， the quantitative model was formulated taking into account the inspection rate and the efficiency of customs clearance to optimize guaranteed delivery time. Thus the analytical solutions of delivery time and the optimal clearance time guarantees were obtained. Then， according to the requirements of supply chain security and customs clearance policies on trade facility， how to investment to upgrade credit rating led to the maximum benefit of was discussed. Finally， the numerical analysis was illustrated to verify the model and algorithm.

Key words： delivery time guarantee； efficiency of customs clearance； cross-border supply chain

0 引 言

在经济全球化的背景下，国际贸易持续繁荣，占全球生产的比重已接近20%，国际贸易使传统意义上的供应链被延伸成了一个跨地区、跨国家的供应链，涉及的环节更多，订单的交付时间也变长了，不确定性增大，供应商承诺的交货期可靠性受到挑战。自20世纪80年代后，Stalk[1]等人提出基于时间的竞争（Time-Based Competition）之后，Hart（1993）[2]和Hill等（1995）[3]进而相继提出了交货期承诺的优化问题。在下达订单后客户都希望产品可以按时送达，尤其对于时间敏感型产品而言，若客户的等候时间过长或缺货情况较多则会另寻卖家，影响供应商的市场份额。……