许家云+李平+王永进

摘 要：人才的跨国外流，究竟是促进了本国的人力资本积累，还是导致了本国人力资本的净损失？回答该问题，对中国在开放经济条件下实施合理的人才开放政策以推动经济增长具有重要意义。本文在开放经济框架内，将人才外流引入人力资本积累的内生决定模型，从理论上探讨了人才外流与本国人力资本积累的关系。在理论分析的基础上，本文进一步使用世界上60个国家和地区2000-2010年的面板数据进行了计量估计。实证结果表明：人才外流与中低收入国家和地区的人力资本积累呈倒“U”型关系，但与高收入国家和地区的人力资本积累线性负相关；人才外流对本国人力资本积累的影响受到本国技能劳动占比和其所生产产品替代弹性的影响。进一步鼓励和合理引导人才尤其是高层次人才的国际流动对提升中国的人力资本水平意义重大。

关键词：人才外流；贸易条件效应；技能劳动占比；人力资本积累

中图分类号：C965 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-4149（2016）03-0091-12

Abstract：Whether brain outflow is beneficial to the home countries human capital accumulation， or is adverse to its human capital accumulation？ Answering this question is of great importance for China to implement reasonable talent policy. This paper analyses the relationship between brain drain and home countries human capital accumulation by taking the brain drain into the endogenously determined model of human capital accumulation in an open economy framework. Furthermore， we test the effects of the brain outflow on home countries human capital accumulation by using panel data of 60 countries or regions in the world from 2000-2010. The results show that： There is an inverted “U”shaped relationship between brain outflow and the level of human capital for low and middle income countries or regions， but it shows a negative linear relationship with the human capital level in the high income countries or regions； The impact of brain drain on home countries human capital accumulation can be influenced by the proportion of home countries skilled labor and their production elasticity of substitution. So further encouraging the international mobility of talents， especially the persons with highquality human capital， is of great significance to enhance the human capital level of developing countries and regions.

Keywords：brain outflow； terms of trade effect； the proportion of skilled labor； human capital accumulation

一、引言

人力资本，尤其是高能力、高素质的人力资本作为一国经济发展不可或缺的要素，正成为各国竞相争夺的宝贵资源[1]。有学者认为西方发达国家和地区凭借自身强大的经济实力不断吸引各国优秀人才为其经济发展注入强劲动力，而大规模的人才外流则给经济技术相对落后的发展中国家和地区带来巨大威胁[2]。但事实确实如此吗？跨国人才外流对一国和地区的影响是利是弊一直悬而未决，而其对本国人力资本积累的影响是目前争议的焦点。……