劳动力成本上升与产业发展：去工业化还是结构升级

韩民春，李根生

(华中科技大学经济学院，湖北武汉430074)

摘要：本文基于空间经济学理论，对中国2000—2012年37个大中城市的实证结果表明，相对劳动力上升对第二产业具有微弱的增促作用，而对第三产业发展具有显著的“挤入效应”，这说明劳动力成本上升促进了产业结构升级；进一步对比东、中西部城市的实证结果发现，目前区域劳动力成本上升和合理差距并没有导致东部“去工业化”的发生，而是有助于东部城市内的工业高端化和产业服务化，同时对中西部工业化有推动作用，这些都有助于中国经济结构深度调整。

关键词：劳动力成本上升；产业转移；去工业化；结构升级

收稿日期：2014-12-10.

作者简介：韩民春(1968- )，男，辽宁人，华中科技大学经济学院教授、博士生导师;研究方向：产业经济、国际经济。

中图分类号:F421

文献标识码:A

Abstract：In recent years，China’s labor costs is rising fast.In the meantime，China is experiencing the regional industrial transfer from eastern to the central and western regions，and the eastern maybe fall into the plight of the industry hollow.Based on the new economic geography model，this paper had an empirical test by using panel data of 37 large and medium cities from 2000 to 2012 based on dynamic panel model.The regression results show that relative labor costs between cities had a big stimulation role on the service sector output，and only little promotion effect on the second industry，which shows that the rise of labor costs promoted the national industrial structure upgrading.The profound analysis by different regional cities shows that the rise of labor costs didn’t have a de-industrialization effect on the secondary industry in the eastern cities，but promoted the structure of manufacturing industry from low-end to high-end value chain，and also promoted the development of service industry.The change will promote China’s economic restructuring.

Rise of Labor Costs and Industrial Development：De-industrialization or Structure Upgrading

Han Minchun,Li Gensheng

(School of Economics，Huazhong University of Science and Technology，Wuhan 430074，China)

Key words:labor costs rising；Industrial transfer；De-industrialization；Industrial structural upgrading

1引言

丰富而价格低廉的劳动力资源一直是中国经济发展的持续动力。但是近年来，中国新增劳动适龄人口的减少，以及农村剩余劳动力存量和流量的双下降，直接带来了劳动力供给的不足[1]；与劳动力供给不足相伴随的是农民工实际工资水平的快速上涨，特别是近十年，年均增长率约为10%[2]。同时，东部地区和中西部地区的劳动力价格存在较大的差距，据估算，东部与中西部农民工的工资差异，大约在30%～40%之间[3]。

随着劳动力成本的快速上涨，中国某些地区低要素成本优势逐步丧失，东部地区许多企业为降低成本而向中西部地区或周边国家迁移，并且这种迁移的趋势在加快[4],据统计，截止2010年已经有近20万家东部企业到西部地区投资建厂，投资总额超过2.2万亿[5]。……