黄晓东+蒲春玲+宋建华+闫志明+张影+刘超

摘    要：耕地生态安全关系到国家粮食安全。根据新疆耕地利用现状及特点，基于P-S-R模型构建新疆耕地生态安全评价指标体系，运用突变级数法进行评价。结果表明：（1）2004—2013年新疆耕地生态安全水平经历了不安全→较不安全→临界安全→较安全的发展历程。（2）从各准则层看，压力系统安全水平经历了较不安全→临界安全→较安全的发展历程;状态系统安全水平经历了不安全→较不安全→较安全→安全的发展历程;响应系统安全水平经历了不安全→较不安全→临界安全→较安全→安全的发展历程。（3）影响新疆耕地生态安全的障碍因素是单位耕地化肥负荷率和人均水资源量。

关键词：耕地;生态安全;P-S-R模型;突变理论;新疆

中图分类号：F127             文献标识码：A           DOI 编码：10.3969/j.issn.1006-6500.2015.12.016

Ecological Security Assessment on Cultivated Land of Xinjiang Based on Catastrophe Theory

HUANG Xiao-dong1，PU Chun-ling1，SONG Jian-hua2，YAN Zhi-ming1，ZHANG Ying1，LIU Chao1

（1.College of Management，Xinjiang Agricultural University，Urumqi，Xinjiang 830052， China;2. Institute of Economics，Xinjiang Academy of Social Science，Urumqi，Xinjiang 830011，China）

Abstract： The cultivated land ecological security is related to national food security. According to the situation of farmland utilization and characteristics in Xinjiang， based on P-S-R model the evaluation index system was constructed and using mutation progression method to evaluate. The results show that（1）Ecological security of cultivated land of Xinjiang during 2009 to 2013 experienced the development process of Unsafe →Less safety →Criticality safety →The safer; （2） From the criterion level， the pressure system experienced the development process of Less safety →Criticality safety →The safer; State system experienced Unsafe →Less safety →The safer →Safe; Response system experienced Unsafe →Less safety →Criticality safety →The safe →safe; （3） The main factors affecting ecological security of cultivated land of Xinjiang are unit farmland fertilizer load rate and average per capita water resources.

Key words： cultivated land; ecological security; P-S-R model; catastrophe theory; Xinjiang

耕地是人类可利用土地中的精华部分，是保障粮食生产的最基本要素。耕地生态安全是指在在一定的时间和空间尺度内，耕地资源生态系统处于保持自身正常功能和满足社会经济可持续发展需要的状态[1]。耕地生态安全是国家生态安全的重要组成部分，关系着国家粮食安全。随着工业化和城镇化进程的不断推进，一方面占用大量耕地资源，导致耕地资源数量减少加速;另一方面耕地利用中化肥、农药和农膜等的不合理使用及过量投入导致农业面源污染严重[2-4]，耕地生态环境恶化趋势明显，耕地的可持续利用和国家粮食安全都面临严重挑战。赵宏波等[5]基于PSR-EES 模……