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[摘 要]改革开放以来，房地产行业表现出来的周期性波动引起了国内外学者的极大关注，运用各种方法对这种周期性进行描述，探讨周期性波动的形成原因及影响因素。在我国，大约70%的房地产开发资金来自于银行信贷，银行信贷与房地产周期波动之间有着紧密的联系，而且房地产行业的发展呈现出区域性、多元化的特点。运用VAR模型实证分析山东省房地产周期与银行信贷之间的关系，结果显示，银行信贷对房地产周期波动有滞后的正向影响，因而可以运用信贷政策适当控制房地产波动；相对来说，货币供应量的扩张或收缩对平抑房地产周期波动基本无效。

[关键词]房地产周期；银行信贷；货币供应量；合成指数；VAR模型

[中图分类号]F293.35 [文献标识码]A [文章编号]1671-8372（2015）03-0020-10

Empirical research on the relationship between the real estate cycle and bank credits

—based on the related data of Shandong province from 2000 to 2013

TANG Shao-xin， TIAN Guang-jian

（Center for Economic Research， Shandong University， Jinan 250100， China）

Abstract：Since the reform and opening up， the periodic fluctuation of real estate industry has attracted much attention of scholars both at home and abroad. The scholars use various methods to describe the periodic nature to explore the causes and influencing factors of periodic fluctuations. In our country， about 70% of the real estate development funds are from the bank credit. The bank credits and real estate cycle fluctuation are closely linked， and the development of the real estate industry presents regional and diversified characteristics. By using VAR model to make the empirical analysis of the relationship between the cycle of real estate and bank credit in Shandong province， we find that bank credit has lagged positive influence on real estate periodic fluctuation. Thus the credit policy can be used to control the real estate fluctuation， and on the other hand， the expansion or contraction of the money supply cannot help ease the periodic fluctuation of real estate.

Key words：real estate cycle； bank credit； money supply； composite index； VAR model

一、引言

1994年，分税制改革实施，其中把耕地占用税、土地使用税、土地增值税、房产税等这些与土地有关的税种都给了地方，土地财政收入成为地方最重要的收入之一。2001年，土地财政收入占地方财税总收入的比重为19.7%，2010年这一比重达到了49.7%。地方土地收入暴涨的背后是房价的疯狂上涨。

1998年，我国开始住房制度改革。实施多年的住房分配制度的结束，开启了住房市场化和货币化时代，促进了我国房地产业的发展，完全释放了房地产行业的发展潜力，标志着我国房地产正式向市场经济体制的转轨。

从相关数据可以看出，这两项改革的实施对我国房地产行业以及国民经济增长的巨大推动作用。……