时少华

摘要：对古村落民俗旅游资源进行评价可以促进民俗旅游的健康可持续发展。以北京西部的门头沟区8个传统村落为研究对象，在评价指标体系基础上运用Clementine12.0中人工神经网络的快速、动态和RBFN 3种评价模型进行仿真训练；在动态方法模型基础上结合模糊综合评价方法对8个古村落民俗旅游资源情况进行评价。结果表明，人工神经网络中的动态模型较其他两种模型可信度更高；8个古村落民俗旅游资源整体状况中等偏上，民俗资源还需进一步开发利用。建议深层次挖掘民俗资源蕴涵的历史和文化内涵、科学系统规划利用、提高交通便利性和基础设施建设，进一步提升京西民俗旅游资源可持续利用程度。

关键词：人工神经网络；京西古村落；民俗旅游资源；评价

中图分类号：F590.3；TP183 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2015）12-3048-07

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2015.12.065

Evaluation on Folk Tourism Resources of Ancient Village in West Beijing Based on Artificial Neural Network

SHI Shao-hua

（Institute of Tourism， Beijing Union University， Beijing 100101 ，China）

Abstract： Evaluation on folk tourism resources of ancient village can promote healthy and sustainable development of folk tourism. Taking eight traditional villages of Mentougou in west Beijing as research subject， on the basis of the evaluation index system， three evaluation models-fast，dynamic and RBFN of the artifical neural network in Clenentine12.0 were simulated； and based on the method of dynamic model combined with the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation， the situation of folk tourism resources in eight ancient villages was evaluated. Results showed that dynamic model owned higher credibility than two other models in artificial neural network， and the overall situation of folk tourism resources in eight traditional villages was above the average， therefore folk tourism resources still need futher development and utilization. It was suggested to deep excavate the history and culture connotation of folk resources， to conduce systematically and plan scientifically， to improve the traffic convenience and infrastructure， and to further enhance the degree of sustainable utilization of the folk tourism resources of west Beijing.

Key words：artificial neural network； ancient village of west Beijing； folk tourism resources； evaluation

古村落作为农业文化的重要组成部分，具有很高的历史、科学、文化价值。北京遗留下来的古村落大多是明清及以后形成的古村落，一些古村落仍保持着极其丰富的历史记忆和根脉及丰富的文化遗存，这也使北京古村落成为国内外旅游者的重要目的地，对古村落民俗旅游资源科学分类、有效评价、保护利用是古村落旅游发展中面临的重要问题。2012年和2013年住房和城乡建设部、文化部、财政部公布两批传统村落名录，北京有13个古村落入选，8个位于门头沟区（分别为爨底下村、灵水村、苇子水村、琉璃渠村、千军台村、马栏村、黄岭西村和三家店村），京西古村落在北京古村落中占有十分重要地位。……