伍智文 胡国强 刘久国 刘云华 翟子豪

摘要

利用娄底农业气象观测站1981～2010年早稻空秕率、发育期气象资料，采用Excel统计软件对幼穗开始分化到乳熟期内光、温、水等气象条件与空壳、秕粒、空秕率（空壳+秕粒）逐时段进行了相关分析，从中寻找影响早稻空秕率的气象因子，然后采用Excel软件建立了早稻空秕率逐步回归预测模型，并探讨了早稻空秕率防御措施。结果表明，气象条件是影响早稻空秕率的重要环境因子；幼穗发育期，温度与空秕率呈正相关，降水与空秕率呈负相关；抽穗开花期、灌浆期，温度与空秕率呈负相关，降水与空秕率呈正相关；由各发育期相关显著的因子建立的早稻空秕率逐步回归预测模型，回代模拟效果比较显著，对2011、2012、2013年早稻空秕率的试测效果也可以。在分析气象条件对早稻空秕率的影响的基础上，建立预测模型，加强预测，提高防御不利气象条件影响的主动性，变临时应对为主动防御。

关键词 气象条件；早稻；空秕率；影响；防御措施

中图分类号 S161 文献标识码 A 文章编号 0517-6611（2014）27-09452-03

Effects of Meteorological Conditions on Early Rice Blighted Grain Rate and Preventive Measures

WU Zhiwen1，2， HU Guoqiang¹， LIU Jiuguo¹et al

（1.Loudi Meteorological Bureau， Loudi， Hunan 417000； 2.Hunan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation， Changsha， Hunan 410118）

Abstract By using rice yield， meteorological data of rice growth period in Loudi agricultural meteorological stations from 1981 to 2010， adopting Excel statistic software， from period of spike differentiation to ripe stage， the correlation of meteorological conditions， such as light， temperature， water and shell， grain， blighted grain rate was analyzed， the factors influencing blighted grain rate were obtained， the stepwise regression prediction model of early rice blighted grain rate was established， and the prevention measures were discussed. The results showed that， the weather condition played an important environmental factor in affecting the yield of early rice. Young panicle developmental stage： temperature and blighted grain rate is positively correlated， precipitation and blighted grain rate is negatively correlated； heading blossom period， grain filling period： blighted grain rate is negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation. The simulation effects is significant of the established regression prediction model by significant correlation factors in each developmental stage， the effect also could be verified from 2011， 2012 and 2013 test results. Based on the analysis of effects of meteorological conditions on the yield of early rice， the prediction model was established for strengthening the forecast， improving the initiative of defensing unfavorable weather conditions， to change the temporary response to active defense， it was a useful attempt.

Key words Weather conditions； Early rice； Blighted grain rate； Influence； Prevention measures

影响早稻空秕率的因子有环境条件、品种、农艺措施等，在这些影响因子中，气象条件是影响早稻空秕率的重要环境因子，其他如品种、农艺措施随着品种的不断选育、改良，农艺措施的改进，对空秕率的影响会逐年减轻，且相对平稳；而气象条件时空分布的不确定性、突发性，是引起早稻空秕率上下波动的主要原因。许多学者对早稻空秕率与气象条件的……