中图分类号：S543.9 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1007-0435（2025）07-2309-11

引用格式：，等.气候变化背景下黑紫披碱草和紫芒披碱草在中国的潜在适生区预测[J].草地学报， 2025，33（7） ：2309—2319 LEIJie-qiong，LIU Yu-ping，SU Xu，et al.Predictionof Potential Suitable Areas of Elymus atratus and Elymu purpuraristatus in China under Climate Change Scenarios[J]. Acta Agrestia Sinica，2O25，33（7）：2309-2319

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Elymus atratus and Elymus purpuraristatus in China under Climate Change Scenarios

LEI Jie-qiong¹，LIU Yu-ping1，2.3， SU Xu^1，2，3* ， GAO Xuan- ⋅lin¹ ， LYU Yang1， ZHENG Ying-hui1， SUN Cheng-lin1，CAIRANG Zha-xi¹， FENG Xu¹ ，LI Jia-huan1，DONG Ying-wen1

（1.ScholofieieesigilUesitygigroeoinaKeybotoesi MechanismandComprehensiveUtilztonoftheQinghai-XizangPlateauininghaiProvince，QnghaiNomalUniversity，Xining，Qingai

Province8oa;deateieedstabiltQilUsitihrea

Abstract： Elymus atratus and Elymus purpuraristatus are two kinds of the key second-class protected plants in China. In the present study，we studied the potential distribution of E atratus and E . purpuraristatus under the current climate condition（1970—2000）and future climate backgrounds（2021—2040，2041—2060，2061— 2080，208l—21OO）with MaxEnt model. The results indicated that（1） The altitude（2524.94-4118. 83m ）， mean temperature of warmest quarter（8.43-14. 75^∘C ）and temperature seasonality（574.91＼～890.01℃）were the main environmental factors influencing the suitable distribution of E .atratus，while the annual mean temperature （0.31-6.91℃），mean temperature of coldest quarter （-11.57-3.16^∘C） and altitude（1483.81-3759.22 m） were the main environmental variables affecting suitable distribution of E . purpuraristatus. （2） Under the current climate conditions，the total suitable area of E . atratus was 288. 61×10⁴km² ，and the suitable distribution of E atratus was mainly located in the Qilian Mountain and Hengduan Mountain，whereas the total suitable area of E . purpuraristatus was 343.86×10⁴km² ，and the suitable distribution of E ： purpuraristatus was mainly distributed in the Kunlun Mountain and A-erh-chin Mountain. （3） In the future scenario，the suitable area of E . atratus and E purpuraristatus showed a downward trend. The distribution center of E ：atratus moved towards the southwest，while that of E . purpuraristatus migrated towards the northeast. The study provided the theoretical basis for protecting germplasm resources and achieving sustainable development of E . atratus and E purpuraristatus in the future. Key Words：MaxEnt model; Elymus; Potential distribution;Spatial pattern;Centroid transfer

气候变化对生物多样性和物种分布范围具有重要影响[1，然而自工业革命以来，随着人类活动强度不断增大，加之自然因素的影响，致使全球范围内二氧化碳含量急剧增加，气候变暖日益加剧，生物的生存环境受到破坏，适生区面积减小，严重影响到生物多样性和生态安全[2-3]。因此，探究未来气候背景下物种潜在适生区分布和空间格局变化，将有助于保护生物多样性、制定有效的物种保护策略以及维持人类赖以生存的生态环境[1-3]。先前研究表明，物种分布模型是研究气候变化背景下气候等环境变量对物种地理分布格局影响的一种重要有效工具[3-4]。目前，国内外研究物种适生区分布较常用的模型有领域模型（DOMAINS）、规则集遗传算法模型（GARP）最大熵模型（MaxEnt）、生物气候分析与预测系统模型（BIOCLIM）、随机森林模型（RFs）等[1.3.5]。其中，MaxEnt模型因具有操作方便、建模直观、预测精度高、解释力强、运行结果稳定等特点，现已被广泛应用于物种适生区预测[1，6-7]。譬如，梁惠子等5基于优化的MaxEnt模型评价了濒危植物海南风吹楠（Horsfieldiahainanensis）生境的适宜性，发现最冷月份的最低温度、年平均温度差和归一化植被指数是影响海南风吹楠适生区分布的主要环境因子，适宜生境面积整体呈扩大趋势，分布质心位置向高纬度迁移，认为优化的MaxEnt模型能够准确预测海南风吹楠的潜在适生区；……