李荣 栗士棋 程芳芳 王国庆

摘 要：在全球变暖背景下，对近40多a来河南省及其主要流域降水量和气温的时空变化及突变特性进行了分析研究。基于179个气象站1973—2016年逐日降水量数据和1972—2018年日平均气温资料，采用M-K秩相关检验等方法，分析研究了河南省四大流域降水量和气温时空变化特征。结果表明：空间分布上，河南省气温自西向东呈降低—升高态势，河南省降水量自西向东呈增加—减少—增加态势;全省气温显著升高，海河区、黄河区、长江区、淮河区气温分别呈现三阶段、两阶段、三阶段、三阶段变化;全省年降水量呈不显著上升趋势，除淮河区外，海河区、黄河区、长江区年降水量下降，降水量大小年交替出现，降水量总体呈阶段性变化;全省气温于2000年发生突变，北部流域突变幅度大于南部流域;河南省年降水量于2008年发生突变，北部流域突变时间较南部流域早。

关键词：气温;降水;主要流域;空间分布;河南省

中图分类号：TV125;S161.2+2

文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.12.015

引用格式：李荣，栗士棋，程芳芳，等.河南省主要流域气象要素变化特征分析[J].人民黄河，2021，43（12）：74-79.

Abstract： Under the background of global warming， the temporal and spatial changes and abrupt changes of rainfall and air temperature in Henan Province and its main watersheds in the past 40 years were studied. Based on the daily precipitation data from 1973-2016 and the daily mean temperature data from 1972-2018 at 179 meteorological stations in Henan Province， the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and temperature in four basins of Henan Province in recent 40 years were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall rank correlation test， cumulative anomaly method and inverse distance weighted spatial interpolation method. The results show that the spatial distribution of temperature in Henan Province in recent 40 years shows an increase-decrease trend from west to east. In recent 40 years， precipitation in Henan Province shows a trend of decreasing and increasing from west to east. The temperature is increased significantly in the whole province. The temperature in the regions of Haihe River， Yellow River， Yangtze River and Huaihe River shows the changes of three stages， two stages， three stages and three stages respectively. Except Huaihe River region， the annual precipitation in Haihe River region， Yellow River region and Yangtze River region is decreased. The annual precipitation alternates between wet and dry years and the overall precipitation shows a phased change. The abrupt change of temperature in the whole province occurs in 2000 and the abrupt change in the northern basin is greater than that in the southern basin. The abrupt change of annual precipitation in Henan Province occurs in 2008 and the abrupt change time in the northern basin is earlier.

Key words： temperature; precipitation; major watershed; spatial distribution; Henan Province

政府间气候变化专业委员会（IPCC）第五次报告指出[1]，近130 a全球平均气温升高0.85 ℃，1971—2010年气温升高速率达到0.09～0.13 ℃/10 a，同時预测未来全球变暖仍将持续。在全球变暖背景下，水文循环及其通量发生改变[2]，气象要素时间序列变化特征及其对水资源的影响成为研究热点，引起国内外学者的关注[3-6]。气候变化正在多层次、多尺度、多方位地影响着人类的生产与生活环境。……