公维凤 范振月 王传会 赵梦真

摘 要：为了给黄河流域低碳转型和高质量发展决策提供参考，利用2000—2018年面板数据和STIRPAT模型，测算了2000—2018年黄河流域的碳排放量，比较沿黄9省（区）碳排放的区域差异及各驱动因素的空间异质性，分析黄河流域碳排放及经济增长之间的关系。结果表明：黄河流域整体碳排放量较大，沿黄9省（区）碳排放量存在明显差异，黄河中下游的山西、陕西、河南、山东4省份属于高排放区，黄河上游的四川和内蒙古2省（区）属于中排放区，青海、宁夏和甘肃3省（区）属于低排放区域;不同驱动因素的碳排放量弹性系数存在差异，经济快速增长是各省（区）碳排放量增加的主要驱动因素，碳排放与经济增长之间存在明显的倒U形库兹涅茨曲线;黄河流域整体碳排放与经济增长之间弹性脱钩状态大致经历了由增长连接到弱脱钩再到强脱钩的过程，脱钩趋势向好，9省（区）碳排放与经济增长之间的弹性脱钩状态存在区域异质性。

关键词：碳排放;驱动因素;EKC检验;弹性脱钩;高质量发展;黄河流域

中图分类号：F201;TV882.1   文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.12.003

引用格式：公维凤，范振月，王传会，等.黄河流域碳排放区域差异、成因及脱钩分析[J].人民黄河，2021，43（12）：12-17.

Abstract：In order to provide a reference for the low-carbon transition and high-quality development decision-making of the Yellow River Basin， using panel data from 2000 to 2018 and the STIRPAT model， the carbon emissions of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2018 were calculated. And the carbon emissions of 9 provinces （regions） along the Yellow River were compared. Regional differences and spatial heterogeneity of various driving factors were analyzed. The relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin were also analyzed. The results show that the overall carbon emissions of the Yellow River Basin are relatively larger. There are significant differences in the carbon emissions of the 9 provinces （regions） along the Yellow River. The four provinces of Shanxi， Shaanxi， Henan， and Shandong in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River belong to high-carbon emission areas. Inner Mongolia is a medium-emission area， and Qinghai， Ningxia and Gansu provinces （regions） are low-emission areas. Different driving factors have different elastic coefficients for carbon emissions. Rapid economic growth is the main driving factor for the increase of carbon emissions in various provinces （regions）. There is an obvious inverted U-shaped Kuznets curve between carbon emissions and economic growth. The state of elastic decoupling between overall carbon emissions and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin has roughly experienced a process of growth connection to weak decoupling and then strong decoupling. The decoupling trend is improving. There are regional heterogeneity about the elastic decoupling states between carbon emissions and economic growth in 9 provinces （regions）.

Key words： carbon emissions; driving factors; EKC test; elastic decoupling; high-quality development; Yellow River Basin

全面分析沿黃各省（区）碳排放空间异质性及其与经济发展之间的关系，对实现黄河流域高质量发展具有重要意义。众多学者的研究[1-9]表明，各地区碳排放影响因素不同。有关学者验证了中国库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）的存在[10-12]，其形状可反映碳排放和经济增长之间的关系。……