李新杰 李弘瑞 张红涛 孔德志 王远见

摘 要：为掌握黄河流域骨干枢纽的泥沙调控利用潜力，从水利枢纽的调沙潜力、输沙潜力和泥沙资源利用潜力的各特征指标出发，结合水利枢纽的共性指标，建立骨干枢纽群的泥沙调控利用潜力评价指标体系，提出基于多目标灰靶理论-累积前景理论的水利枢纽泥沙调控利用潜力量化方法。该方法利用多目标灰靶理论确定泥沙调控利用潜力评价指标体系决策矩阵，结合累积前景理论确定骨干枢纽综合前景值。采用模糊判别法对黄河流域骨干枢纽的泥沙调控利用潜力进行综合评价。由研究结果可知，小浪底水库的泥沙调控利用潜力最大，其次是刘家峡水库和三门峡水库，万家寨水库最小。

关键词：泥沙调控;灰靶理论;前景理论;模糊理论;骨干枢纽;黄河流域

中图分类号：TV697;TV882.1

文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.11.008

引用格式：李新杰，李弘瑞，张红涛，等.黄河流域骨干枢纽泥沙调控利用潜力评价研究[J].人民黄河，2021，43（11）：40-45，51.

Sediment Regulation and Utilization Potentiality Evaluation of Key Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin

LI Xinjie  LI Hongrui2， ZHANG Hongtao2， KONG Dezhi  WANG Yuanjian1

（1.Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research， Zhengzhou 45000  China;

2.School of Electric Power， North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power， Zhengzhou 450011， China;

3.Hydrological Bureau of Yellow River Conservancy Commission， Zhengzhou 450004， China）

Abstract： In order to grasp the regulation and utilization potential ofkey reservoirs in the Yellow River Basin， the value evaluation system of sediment dynamic regulation potential of key water conservancy projects was established based on the characteristic indexes of sediment control potential， sediment transport potential and sediment resource utilization potential combined with the common indexes of water conservancy projects. Sediment dynamic control capacity quantitative method was presented based on multi-objective grey target theory and the cumulative prospect theory. The method was used to deal with index matrix by the multi-objective grey target theory and realized the quantification of the potential value by combining with the cumulative prospect theory. Finally， taking the key reservoirs of the Yellow River as an example， the fuzzy assessment method was applied to make comprehensive evaluation of sediment dynamic control potential. The results show that the Xiaolangdi Reservoir has the highest sediment dynamic regulation capacity， Liujiaxia Reservoir， Sanmenxia Reservoir and Wanjiazhai Reservoir rank the second to the fourth respectively.

Key words： sediment regulation; grey target theory; prospect theory; fuzzy theory; key reservoir; Yellow River Basin

黃河难治，根在泥沙，黄河的泥沙淤积和处置问题是长期困扰黄河治理的关键技术难题[1]，而大型水利枢纽是调节河流泥沙时空分布的重要工具[2]。目前，已经建成的黄河水沙调控工程体系在防洪减淤和水沙调控方面发挥了巨大作用[3]。然而，随着黄河流域水沙条件的变化和骨干枢纽群的长期运行，水库泥沙淤积制约着水库综合效益的发挥，流域骨干枢纽群泥沙调控利用潜力逐渐降低，影响了流域水沙调控的效果[4]。……