摘 要： 2019年末突然爆发的新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）肺炎严重影响到居民的日常生活。网约车作为公共交通系统的补充，在大中运量公共交通停止运营期间，为居民的刚性出行需求提供了保障性服务。本文基于SEIR传染病模型模拟病毒传染的传播过程，通过对比分析说明减少人员接触对遏制病毒传播的重要性。健康码作为一个数字抗疫亮点，考虑到健康码为红色的乘客携带病毒的可能性较高，本文提出对其进行一对一接送策略，在保证乘客出行需求的前提下，降低其他乘客感染病毒的风险，并利用二元选择模型中的logit模型来预测网约车司机运送红码乘客的概率。最后基于SEIR模型传播过程，分别从控制车内的人员数量、缩短乘客的出行时间以及车辆的防疫措施这三方面对疫情期间网约车出行提出应对策略。

关键词： SEIR传染病模型; 病毒传播; 网约车运营管理; 二元选择模型

COVID-19 propagation process based on SEIR

model and online car-hailing response strategy

CHEN Jingyi

（Business School， University of Shanghai for Science and Technology， Shanghai 200093， China）

【Abstract】The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 at the end of 2019 has seriously affected residents' daily life. As a supplement to the public transport system， online car-hailing provides guaranteed services for residents' rigid travel demands during the shutdown of large and medium volume public transport. Based on the SEIR infectious disease model， this paper simulates the transmission process of virus infection and illustrates the importance of reducing human contact to contain the transmission of virus through comparative analysis. As a digital anti epidemic window， considering the fact that passengers with a red health code are more likely to carry the virus， this paper puts forward one-on-one transport strategy， on the premise of guaranteeing the passenger travel demand， reduces the risk of other passengers infected with the virus， and by using the logit model of binary choice model to predict the probability about car driver carrying red-code passengers. Finally， based on the propagation process of SEIR model， the countermeasures for online ride-hailing during the epidemic period are proposed from three aspects： controlling the number of passengers in the car， shortening the travel time of passengers and epidemic prevention measures of vehicles.

【Key words】SEIR model; virus transmission; online car-hailing operation management; binary choice model

0 引 言

2020年初新型冠狀病毒肺炎（以下简称‘新冠肺炎）突然爆发，研究表明，新冠肺炎的传播途径主要是飞沫传播和间接接触传播[1]。为了最大限度遏制疫情蔓延，中国交通运输部、卫健委等相关部门采取了一系列的措施。由于疫情爆发正值春运期间，人口流动量极大。为了减少人员的流动，遏制病毒传播，仅以武汉为例，武汉市自2020年1月23日10时起，全市的公交、地铁、长途客运等暂停运营，离汉通道暂时关闭。为了保障社区居民应急出行，武汉市交通运输局从9家巡游出租车和网约车公司共征集车辆6 000辆，为居民应急出行提供服务[2]。……