邢朝国

【治理现代化研究】 DOI：10.14182/j.cnki.j.anu.2021.06.008

关键词：已婚未育青年;生育动机三维结构;生育支持政策精准度

摘 要：将生育动机划分为对生育重要性的认知、生育信心水平和生育准备程度三个维度，设计生育动机量表。以已婚未育青年为对象进行实证研究，发现该群体生育动机的三个维度相对均衡，其中生育信心水平最高，对生育重要性的认知居中，生育准备程度最低;男性已婚未育青年的对生育重要性的认知显著高于女性已婚未育青年，但二者在生育信心水平和生育准备程度方面差异不明显;随着年龄增长，已婚未育青年对生育重要性的认知和生育准备程度都有显著提高，但生育信心水平出现下降;随着受教育程度提高，已婚未育青年对生育重要性的认知、生育信心水平、生育准备程度都显著降低;已婚未育青年的家庭经济收入水平与对生育重要性的认知、生育信心水平、生育准备程度呈非对称的倒U型曲线关系。研究指出，在科学评估特定育龄人群生育动机三维结构基础上，可以有针对性地将结构中的短板作为干预目标，从而提高生育支持政策的精准性。

中图分类号：C919文献标志码：A文章编号：1001-2435（2021）06-0076-10

The Three Dimensions of Fertility Motivation of the Married-infertile Young People—Also on the Path to Improve the Accuracy of Fertility Support Policies

XING Chao-guo （Grammar School，University of Science and Technology Beijing，Beijing 100083，China）

Key words：married-infertile young people; the three dimensions of fertility motivation; the accuracy of birth support policy

Abstract：This study designs a fertility motivation scale. Taking married-infertility young people as an empirical study，collecting data through internet survey platform，the paper found that the three dimensions of married-infertile young peoples fertility motivation are relatively balanced. Among them，the level of fertility confidence is the highest，then is the level of fertility importance，and the level of fertility preparation is the lowest. Besides，the married-infertile males have the higher level of fertility importance than the females，but there is not significant difference between them on the level of fertility confidence and the level of fertility preparation. In addition，the level of fertility importance and the level of fertility preparation grow with age. However，the level of fertility importance，the level of fertility confidence and the level of fertility preparation decreases when their education degree improves. There are asymmetric inverted U-shaped curves between family income and the level of fertility importance，the level of fertility confidence and the level of fertility preparation. The paper claims that the three dimensional structure of fertility motivation could be a new perspective for researching fertility attitude and fertility behavior and offer clear evidence for making fertility support policies.

一、問题提出

2021年2月8日，公安部户政管理研究中心发布《2020年全国姓名报告》，显示2020年出生并完成户籍登记的新生儿共1 003.5万，比2019年下降14.89%。1该报告一公布，便引发人们对生育率下降的讨论。根据国家统计局数据，我国近几年出生人口数逐年下降，2017年出生人口为1 723万人，2018年出生人口为1 523万，2019年出生人口为1 465万，但在新生婴儿中，二孩比例连续几年提高，2019年达到了57%。……