王方圆 李小平 肖千璐 李奕宏

摘 要：黄河水沙变化情势尤其是来沙量变化趋势判断是确定治黄方略的重要依据。以近年来径流泥沙锐减的黄河中游佳芦河流域为研究对象，分析了极端暴雨情况下的可能来沙量。结果表明：依据佳芦河流域1962—2017年204场降雨、输沙量实测资料点绘的次洪雨量—沙量双累计曲线在1972年、2002年出现明显拐点，相同降雨量条件下拐点后输沙量明显减少，可把1971年以前作为天然时期、把2002年以后作为现阶段;采用次降雨量拟合法、降雨侵蚀力（降雨因子组合）拟合法、次降雨分时段雨量拟合法、上包络线法等4种方法和大于50 mm场次降雨量拟合的佳芦河次洪输沙量计算公式，拟合效果较为理想;次降雨分时段雨量拟合法分析表明，场次降雨过程中最大1 h降雨量、最大2 h降雨量减去最大1 h降雨量、最大3 h降雨量减去最大2 h降雨量这3个分时段降雨量对次洪输沙量的影响较大;采用4种拟合公式和历史实测极端强降雨组合法设定的极端暴雨，计算的现阶段佳芦河可能来沙量为0.12亿～0.22亿t，与天然时期相比减沙效益为88.7%～94.8%，其中最大可能来沙量0.22亿t是实测最大次洪输沙量0.52亿t的42.3%。

关键词：可能来沙量;极端暴雨;次降雨量;次洪輸沙量;佳芦河流域

中图分类号：TV122+.1;S157.1;TV882.1 文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.10.011

引用格式：王方圆，李小平，肖千璐，等.佳芦河流域极端暴雨可能来沙量研究[J].人民黄河，2021，43（10）：56-59，92.

Abstract： The changes of water and sediment in the Yellow River， especially judging the trend of the amount of incoming sediment is an important basis for determining the strategy for controlling the Yellow River. The runoff and sediment of the Jialu River Basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River have been decreased sharply in recent years. Taking the Jialu River Basin as the research object， the paper analyzed the possible amount of incoming sand in extreme rainstorm conditions. The result shows that based on 204 rainfall events in the Jialu River Basin from 1962 to 2017， the flood rainfall-sedimentary double cumulative curve plotted on the measured data points of sediment transport shows significant inflection points in 1972 and 2002. After the inflection point， the amount of sediment transport is significantly reduced under the same rainfall conditions. Then this paper took 1971 as the natural period and 2002 and later as the current stage. The relationship between rainfall over 50 mm and sediment yield was analyzed by sub-rainfall fitting method， rainfall erosion method， sub-rainfall time-segment rainfall fitting method and outsourcing line method. The fitting effect was ideal. The analysis of rainfall by period fitting shows that，during the rainfall， the maximum 1 h rainfall， the maximum 2 h rainfall minus the maximum 1 h rainfall， the maximum 3 h rainfall minus the maximum 2 h rainfall， the three sub-period rainfalls have a greater impact on the amount of sediment transported by the sub flood. Adopting 4 fitting formulas and extreme torrential rain set by historical measured extreme rainfall combined method， the current calculation of the possible amount of sediment in the Jialu River is between 12 million and 22 million tons. Compared with the natural period， the benefit of sand reduction is 88.7%-94.8%. The maximum possible sediment load of 22 million tons is 42.3% of the measured maximum subsurface flood discharge of 52 million tons.

Key words： possible incoming sediment amount; extreme rainstorm event; rainfall event; sediment output in each flood; Jialu River

黄河水沙变化情势尤其是来沙量变化趋势判断是确定治黄方略的重要依据。黄河年均输沙量1919—1959年为16亿t（潼关/陕县断面），20世纪80年代以来逐渐减少，主要原因是支流产流产沙量和入黄水沙量不断减少[1]。……