木合塔尔?艾买提 肖鹏南 徐涛

摘要： 為评价湖北省粮食生产系统发展状态和影响因素，基于熵值法和耗散结构理论，建立了粮食生产系统正、负熵值计算指标体系。研究结果表明：①湖北省粮食生产系统具有开放性、远离平衡性、熵流非线性、涨落现象等特征，满足耗散结构理论条件。②2000-2016年湖北省粮食生产系统内熵为0.893，外熵为-0.905，系统总熵-0.012，系统处于有序发展状态。③单位面积粮食产量是反映内熵的主要因素，农民人均纯收入和政府粮食最低收购价是影响外熵的主要因素。④2000-2016年湖北省粮食生产系统负熵不断增加，系统总熵逐渐减小，系统向有序态方向发展。⑤湖北省粮食生产能力不断提高，2016年湖北省生产的粮食能养活大约为7×107人。总之，基于耗散结构理论的粮食生产系统发展状态判断结果较为科学、符合实际，能准确地反映粮食生产系统的发展情况。

关键词： 粮食生产系统;耗散结构理论;熵值法

中图分类号： X24   文献标识码： A   文章编号： 1000-4440（2021）04-1043-08

Based on dissipative structure theory analysis about development status of grain production system

Muhtar·AMAT1， XIAO Peng-nan2， XU Tao2

（1.College of Life and Geography Sciences， Kashi University， Kashi 844006， China;2.College of Urban & Environment Sciences， Central China Normal University， Wuhan 430079，China）

Abstract： To evaluate the development status and influencing factors of grain production system in Hubei province， calculation index system of positive and negative entropy values for grain production system was established based on entropy method and dissipative structure theory. The results showed that， firstly， the grain production system of Hubei province had the characteristics such as openness， far from equilibrium state， nonlinear entropy flow， non-linearity and fluctuation， which met the theoretical conditions of dissipative structure. Secondly， the internal entropy of the grain production system in Hubei province was 0.893， the external entropy was -0.905 and the total entropy was -0.012 in 2000-2016， the grain production system was in an orderly development state. Thirdly， the grain production per unit area was the main factor reflecting internal entropy， the farmers′ per capita net income and the governmental lowest purchasing price for grain were the main factors affecting external entropy. Fourthly， in 2000-2016， the negative entropy of grain production system in Hubei province increased continuously， the total entropy of the system decreased gradually and the system developed towards orderly state. Fifthly， the grain production capacity of Hubei province increased continuously. In 2016， grain produced in Hubei province could feed about 70 million people. In conclusion， the development status of grain production system judged by the dissipative structure theory is relatively scientific and practical， which can reflect the development of the grain production system accurately.

Key words： grain production system;dissipative structure theory;entropy method

粮食是人类赖以生存的物质基础，也是生产活动的产物之一。粮食生产是人类最基础的生产活动，粮食生产与自然和社会之间存在着复杂的关系。粮食与其所处的外部环境共同形成了粮食生产系统，粮食生产系统是开放，输入-输出层次分明，系统结构清晰，受到人文因素和自然因素的共同影响，不断地发生变化的社会系统。粮食生产系统是人地系统的一部分，它的发展情况能反应人口（P）、资源（R）、环境（E）和发展（D）的关系[1]和发展状态。……