包慧坚

摘要：【目的】调查研究2020年广西蔬菜的价格走势及其成因，对2021年广西蔬菜价格走势进行预测，为2021年广西蔬菜的生产组织提供参考依据。【方法】通过文献资料、实地调查的方法调查收集广西各地不同时段的蔬菜价格，进行比较分析，掌握蔬菜价格的变化规律及成因，对来年广西蔬菜的价格走势进行预测，并对广西的蔬菜生产提出对策与建议。【结果】预测2021年全年蔬菜价格稳中有降，但第一季度蔬菜价格将保持温和上行趋势;预计椒类蔬菜价格回落;小宗蔬菜春节前维持高价运行，但节后价格下调。【建议】加强市场信息监测与发布，防范供销脱节风险;大力发展农业合作社，实现产销对接;完善蔬菜仓储加工设施设备。

关键词：蔬菜价格;趋势;预测;对策

中图分类号：sT13.36文献标识号：A文章编号：1003-4374（2021）05-0055-07

Analysis on the Price Tren4 of Guangxi Vegetable Market in 2020

Bao Hui-jian

（Guangxi Agricultural Vocational College. Nanning，Guangxi 530007，China）

Abstract：【0bjective】The research investigated the vegetables price trend and causes in Guangxi in 2020， and  predicted  the  price  trend  of  vegetables  in  2021， so  as  to  provide  reference  for  the production organization of vegetables in Guangxi in 2021.   【Method】The vegetable prices of different periods in Guangxi were investigated and collected through literature review and field investigation，the rules and causes of vegetable prices change were compared and analyzed. The price trend of vegetables in Guangxi in the next year was predicted，and the countermeasures and suggestions for vegetable production in Guangxi were put forward.   【Result】It is predicted that vegetable prices will keep a moderate upward trend in the first quarter of 2021.It is estimated that peppers and vegetables prices will fall back，small production of vegetables will maintain high prices before the spring Festival but fhe pricewill fall after the festival，and vegetable prices will fall steadily throughout the year.【suggestion】 strengthen the monitoring and releasing of market information，prevent the risk of supply and marketing disconnection;vigorously  develop  agricultural  cooperatives， realize  the  docking  of  production  and marketing;further improve the vegetable storage and processing facilities and equipment.

Key words： vegetable price，trend，predict，countermeasures

广西地处亚热带季风气候区，气候温和，适合种植蔬菜，有着"天然绿色大棚"的美誉。凭借着优越的自然气候条件和蔬菜种植基础等因素，广西26个县区被农业部列为蔬菜产业重点县，成为了冬春季全国蔬菜供应的重点区域，目前已形成四个蔬菜产业带：西江流域蔬菜产业带、北部湾蔬菜产业带、湘桂通道蔬菜产业带、右江河谷蔬菜產业带。在我国"南菜北运"的三个试点省区广西、海南、云南中，无论是蔬菜的种植面积，还是蔬菜的产量，广西均居于首位。研究广西蔬菜价格走势并用于指导蔬菜的生产不仅关系到广大菜农的利益，而且也在一定程度上关系到全国的蔬菜供应及物价的稳定。……