王垒 张翠芳 康旺霖

关键词：风险金融市场参与;家庭收入期望差距;前景理论;风险态度

摘 要：以收入预期为切入点，使用中国家庭金融调查的数据，基于前景理论实证分析了家庭收入期望差距对其风险金融市场参与行为的影响。研究表明，家庭收入期望顺差会促进其风险金融市场参与行为，且家庭收入社会期望顺差的正向作用大于历史期望顺差;家庭收入历史期望落差也正向影响了风险金融市场参与，但社会期望落差影响不显著;当期家庭收入期望顺差影响其风险投资的边际效应要高于家庭收入期望落差。长期来看，家庭收入历史期望顺差的促进作用增强，而家庭收入社会期望顺差的正向影响减弱。家庭收入期望差距的促进效果主要表现在高收入、东部地区的家庭群体，财产性收入的影响强于劳动性收入。机制分析发现家庭收入期望顺差通过改变家庭的风险偏好和金融知识水平来促进风险投资，而家庭收入历史期望落差仅能提升金融知识。

中图分类号：G11;D19文献标志码：A文章编号：1001-2435（2021）04-0137-13

Household Income Expectation Gap and Risk Financial Market Participation Behavior： The Micro-Evidence from CHFS

WANG Lei1，2， ZHANG Cui-fang1， KANG Wang-lin3（1. School of Economics， Ocean University of China， Qingdao Shandong 266100， China; 2. Institute of Marine Development of Ocean University of China， Qingdao Shandong 266100， China; 3. School of Economics and Management， Shandong University of Science and Technology， Qingdao Shandong 266590， China）

Key words： risk financial market participation; household income expectation gap; prospect theory; risk attitude

Abstract： Based on the prospect theory， we take income expectation as an access point， and analyze the influence of the household income expectation gap on the behavior of taking part in the risk financial market， using data from the China Household Financial Survey. The results show that： positive income expectation gap promotes families to participate in the risk financial market， and positive income social expectation gaps effect is greater than that of historical expectation gap; negative income historical expectation gap also is positive， but its effect isnt significant; positive income expectation gaps marginal effect is higher than the negative one in the current period. In the long run， the promotion of positive income historical expectation gap is strengthening， while the social expectation gap becomes weakening. The promotion effect mainly comes from high-income families and eastern families， and property incomes effect is greater than that of labor income. Further mechanism analysis shows that positive income expectation gap increases familys risk preference and financial knowledge to promote family to invest risky assets， but negative income historical expectation gap only improves financial knowledge.

一、引 言

家庭作为社会的基本单元，其风险金融市场参与行为对提高自身福利、完善金融市场意义重大，但世界各国普遍存在家庭风险金融市场参与不足的问题。随着我国居民收入大幅提升以及金融产品种类繁多，家庭理财观念已经发生转变，持有金融资产的结构得到改善，但依旧具有配置比例低、投资单一的特征。根据……