扈文秀　朱冠平　李祥发

摘 要：本文以2010～2018年沪深A股上市公司数据为样本，实证检验了金融资产持有对企业违约风险的影响以及融资约束的传导效应。研究发现：金融资产持有与企业违约风险呈现显著U型关系，表明适度的金融资产持有有助于降低企业违约风险，而过度的金融资产持有将会加大企业违约风险。进一步研究发现，KZ指数、现金流状况、财务冗余和真实利润水平代理的融资约束在金融资产持有影响企业违约风险的过程中扮演着中介传导效应。本文的研究结论不仅拓展了企业违约风险的影响因素和金融资产持有经济后果方面的文献，亦能为利益相关者对企业未来违约风险预测提供重要参考价值。

关键词：金融资产持有;企业违约风险;U型关系;融资约束;中介效应

中图分类号：F275文献标识码：A文章编号：1003-5192（2021）03-0039-08doi：10.11847/fj.40.3.39

Financial Asset Holdings and Corporate Default Risk：

The Mediating Effect of Financing Constraints

HU Wen-xiu， ZHU Guan-ping， LI Xiang-fa

（School of Economics and Management， Xian University of Technology， Xian 710054， China）

Abstract：The paper takes the A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2018 as a sample to empirically test the impact of financial asset holdings on corporate default risk and the conduction effect of financing constraints. The study finds that there is a clear U-shaped relationship between the financial asset holdings and corporate default risk， which indicates that moderate financial asset holdings helps to reduce corporate default risk， while excessive financial asset holdings will increase corporate default risk. Further research finds that the financing constraints， which are measured by the KZ index， cash flow states， financial slack， and real profit level， play a mediating conduction effect in the process of financial asset holdings affecting corporate default risk. The research conclusions in this paper not only expand the literature on the impact factors of corporate default risk and the economic consequences of financial asset holdings， but also provide important reference values for stakeholders to predict the future default risk of enterprises.

Key words：financial asset holdings; corporate default risk; U-shaped relationship; financing constraints; mediating effect

1 引言

企業违约风险是指企业未能及时偿还所欠债务和利息的可能性。据路透社2020年6月初的报道，今年亚洲企业净债务对息税折旧摊销前利润的比例上升到了2014年6月以来新高，预计到2020年底非金融企业高收益债违约率将从2019底的1.1%上升至6.4%，这表明企业违约风险正在恶化。较高的企业违约风险在短期内不仅会降低受信方的声誉，在长期更是会影响市场预期，诱使债权人收紧信用，加急追讨资金，若是形成连环违约，更是会导致金融系统风险[1]。因而，探寻企业违约风险的决定因素，具有重要的理论和现实意义。

在企业违……