张大力 张馨 陈春燕 乔建刚

摘要 为了解已有的过街设施是否可以满足未来几年内日益增长的过街需求，需要对过街设施的服务水平进行探究。首先对影响行人客流预测的三个主要因素土地利用、家庭出行特征、交通阻抗进行分析。基于实地观测的路网断面交通量，运用OD反推原理得到北京市现状路网OD矩阵， 通过TransCAD对道路交通量进行预测得到目标年期望线图和交通量分布图，并将立体过街设施服务水平等级分为6级。最后分析过街人流量与主要因素间的相互关系，得出立体过街设施服务水平预测模型，为立体过街设施运营管理提供理论依据。

关 键 词 交通规划;立体过街设施;客流预测;TransCAD;服务水平模型

中图分类号 U491.114     文献标志码 A

Abstract In order to know whether the existing cross-street facilities can meet the increasing demand of cross-street in the coming years， it is necessary to analyze the service level of cross-street facilities.Firstly， three main factors including land use， family trip characteristics and traffic impedance are analyzed， which are affecting pedestrian flow forecasting.Secondly，based on the observed traffic volume of the road network section， the OD matrix of Beijing's current road network is obtained by using OD matrix estimation ， and the target annual expectation line and traffic flow distribution map are predicted by TransCAD， and the service level of three-dimensional street crossing facilities is divided into six grades. Finally， through the analysis of the relationship between the flow of pedestrian across the street and the main factors， the service level prediction model of the three-dimensional crossing facilities is obtained， which provides a theoretical basis for the operation and management of the three-dimensional crossing facilities.

Key words traffic planning; three-dimensional crossing facilities; passenger volume forecasting;TransCAD; service level model

0 引言

綠色出行是当前世界城市交通发展的主要潮流，步行是建设节约环保型城市交通体系的有效方式之一。随着北京市步行交通的倡导和推进，行人过街需求随之增大，行人过街设施服务水平高低也广为关注。对于平面过街设施服务水平，国内外学者一方面基于设施本身及周边环境进行研究，边杨等[1]基于道路通行能力、机动车等相关因素建立了设施服务等级的多元回归量化评价模型;另一方面基于过街人群进行研究，李嘉等[2]基于行人满意度结构方程模型，采用BP神经网络模型对路侧带行人服务水平进行评价，金光浩等[3]基于行人过街阻力模型对无信号控制人行横道服务水平进行……