赵雄雄 孙毅

摘 要：在当前地方各级财政压力日益增大的背景下，中央和地方均大力推广PPP模式，把PPP模式作为一种缓解地方财政压力的方式，但事实并非如此。基于2016—2017年地级市的PPP数据和政策偏差指数，研究发现：PPP模式的实施并没有缓解地方政府财政压力;因政策偏差指数高低不同，对地方财政压力的影响有截然不同的影響，即高于均值时有加剧作用，低于均值时则起到弱化作用。在考虑空间因素之后，更准确地估计到了PPP及政策偏差指数对财政压力的更显著的影响。这意味着加强地方财源建设、扩大中央与地方的财政收入分成比例才能从更根本上解决地方财政压力。且在PPP应用推广中，一方面要注意各地PPP项目建设的规范性，另一方面也要兼顾不同地方的差异性。本文主要的贡献是将政策偏差指数以调节效应形式引入PPP模式对地方财政压力的模型之中，并引入空间效应，从而更全面、准确、充分的揭示了PPP模式对地方财政压力的影响。

关 键 词：PPP模式;政策偏差;财政压力;空间滞后模型

DOI：10.16315/j.stm.2021.01.009

中图分类号： F812

文献标志码： A

Abstract：In the context of the increasing financial pressure at all levels of local governments， both the central and local governments are vigorously promoting the PPP model as a way to alleviate the financial pressure of local governments， but this is not the case. Based on the PPP data and policy deviation index of prefecturelevel cities from 2016 to 2017， the study found that the implementation of the PPP model did not relieve the financial pressure of local governments. Due to the different level of the policy deviation index， the impact on local fiscal pressure is completely different. That is when it is higher than the average value， it has an aggravating effect， but when it is lower than the average value， it has a weakening effect. After considering the spatial factors， we can more accurately estimate the more significant impact of PPP and policy deviation index on fiscal pressure. This means that only by strengthening the construction of local fiscal revenue and expanding the proportion of central and local fiscal revenue sharing can the local fiscal pressure be fundamentally solved. In the application and promotion of PPP， on the one hand， attention should be paid to the standardization of PPP project construction in various places， and on the other hand， the differences in different places should be taken into consideration.

Keywords：PPP model; policy deviation; financial pressures; spatial lag model

2020年“两会”上地方财政问题再次引起各界关注，不仅受疫情影响，也与地方财政长期存在压力有关。据中国统计年鉴相关数据，我国地方政府一般公共预算缺口由2000年的3 960.59亿元上涨到2018年的90 292.94亿元，仅最近5年地方政府一般公共预算缺口就增加了几乎一倍，我国地方政府财政压力可见一斑。已故经济学家成思危早在2014年就指出中国地方政府债务是未来10年内我国经济发展的一大挑战。……