陈孝鑫，钱鼎炜，陈弘志

摘要：【目的/意义】随着农业三项补贴的改革，财政结构发生转变，探索耕地地力保护补贴是如何影响农业全要素生产率的变化有助于完善补贴政策，为促进福建省农业发展提供参考和启发。【方法/过程】采用DEAMalmquist模型，对泉州市、宁德市和漳州市的农业全要素生产率进行测算，并通过Tobit模型对农业全要素生产率进行回归分析。【结果/结论】结果表明：技术效率是引起农业全要素生产率增长的主要原因;从农业全要素生产率的影响因素来看，耕地地力保护补贴资金和年日照时数显著正向影响农业全要素生产率，各县市GDP、户均耕地面积和年平均气温显著负向影响农业全要素生产率，而年降雨量与农业全要素生产率呈负相关关系。

关键词：DEAMalmquist模型;技术进步;Tobit模型;耕地地力保护补贴

中图分类号：F327文献标志码：A文章编号：1637-5617（2021）05-0023-08

Effects of the Subsidies for the Protection of Cultivated Land Fertility on Agricultural Total

Factor Productivity in Fujian Province

CHEN Xiaoxin， QIAN Dingwei， CHEN Hongzhi

（School of Economics and Management， Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University，

Fuzhou， Fujian 350002， China）

Abstract： 【Objective/Meaning】With the reform of three subsidies in agriculture， the financial structure has changed. Exploring how the subsidies of farmland productivity protection affect the changes of total factor productivity in agriculture is helpful to improve the subsidy policies and provide reference and inspiration for promoting the agricultural development in Fujian Province. 【Methods/Procedures】By using the DEAMalmquist model， the total factor productivity of agriculture in Quanzhou City， Ningde City and Zhangzhou City was calculated， and then the Tobit model was used to make regression analysis on the total factor productivity of agriculture. 【Results/Conclusions】The results showed that the technical efficiency was the main reason for the increase of agricultural total factor productivity. From the perspective of the influencing factors of agricultural total factor productivity， the subsidies for the fertility protection of cultivated land and the annual sunshine duration had significant positive impact on the total factor productivity of agriculture. The GDP of each county and city， the average cultivated area per household， and the annual average temperature had significant negative impact on the total factor productivity of agriculture， while the annual rainfall was negatively correlated with the agricultural total factor productivity.

Key words：DEAMalmquist model; technological progress; Tobit model; subsidies for the protection of cultivated land fertility

自改革开放以来，我国逐渐建立“十分珍惜、合理利用土地和切实保护耕地”的耕地保护制度与政策，为守住“谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全”的国家粮食安全战略底线做出了巨大的贡献。2012年国务院批准并下发《全国土地整治规划（2011-2015）》，明确提出确保我国耕地保有量达到18.8億亩的要求。紧接着，2017年的相关文件提出要推行绿色生产方式，改进耕地占补平衡方法，并深入推进农业“三项补贴”的改革。而后，2018-2020年的中央一号文件都强调了农村突出问题的整治和生态环境保护等系列问题，提出要实现生产清洁化等要求。2021年中央一号文件再次强调了要务必严守18亿亩耕地红线，将耕地保护制度严格落实到位，推动农业绿色发展。……