鲁亓　王华清　徐强　栗焱　祝德琳

摘 要：本文利用德州市各县（市、区）2011—2020年4—10月11个国家自动站及76个区域自动站的逐时降水资料，研究德州市降水量超过20 mm/h的时空变化特征，分析其空间分布、年际变化、月变化及日变化特征。结果表明：德州市短时强降水的均次年平均降水量空间分布较为均匀，年平均降水频次的空间分布为南多北少;均次降水量和降水频次年际间呈明显的波动变化;月平均降水量和月平均降水频次以7月、8月最多，10月最少;日变化降水量分布较为均匀，而降水频次日变化分布存在两个明显的大值区域，分别是凌晨和下午时段。

关键词：小时强降水;时空变化;日变化;德州市

中图分类号：P426.6 文献标识码：A 文章編号：1003-5168（2021）32-0137-04

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Short-Term Heavy Rainfall in Dezhou City from 2011 to 2020

LU Qi WANG Huaqing XU Qiang LI Yan ZHU Delin

（1. Linyi Meteorological Bureau of Dezhou City， Dezhou Shandong 251500;2. Meteorological Bureau of Dezhou City， Dezhou Shandong 253000;3. Qingyun Meteorological Bureau of Dezhou City， Dezhou Shandong 253700）

Abstract： This paper uses the hourly precipitation data of 11 national automatic stations and 76 regional automatic stations from April to October of 2011—2020 in all counties （county-level cities and districts） of Dezhou city to study the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation over 20 mm/h in Dezhou city， and analyzes its spatial distribution， inter-annual variation， monthly variation and daily variation characteristics. The results show that the average annual average precipitation of short-term heavy rainfall in Dezhou city is more evenly distributed， and the average annual precipitation frequency is more in the south and less in the north. The average precipitation and precipitation frequency show obvious fluctuations between years. The monthly average precipitation and the monthly average precipitation frequency are the most in July and August， and the least in October. The distribution of daily variation of precipitation is relatively uniform， while the distribution of daily variation of precipitation frequency has two obvious large-value areas， namely the early morning and afternoon periods.

Keywords： hourly heavy precipitation;temporal and spatial variation;diurnal variation;Dezhou city

随着全球气候变暖的加剧，强降水事件呈现出向极端化发展的趋势[1]。研究表明，20世纪全球年降水量和极端降水呈增加趋势，尤其在北半球中高纬度地区，极端降水的频率和强度显著增加[2]。在我国东部地区，虽然降水日数减少，但极端强降水日数增加[3]。近年来，降水的日变化研究成果日益增多。中国夏季降水存在显著的日变化，而且区域特征鲜明[4]。山东省小时极端强降水主要发生在15：00—20：00[5]。上述研究表明，有必要根据高时空分辨率的降水数据，对德州市开展降水时空分布和变化的研究。

德州市位于山东省西北部，地处黄河下游北侧，处于东经115°45′～117°36′、北纬36°24′～38°0′。地貌为黄河冲积平原，历史上境内曾有两次黄河大迁徙、上千次决口，造就了西南高、东北低的地形。……