黎敏

刚刚过去的2020年，《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）的签署无疑是区域经济一体化建设的又一里程碑。总体来看，RCEP的开放水平显著高于原有“10+1”自贸协定，并纳入了多个现代化议题，是一个现代、全面、高质量、互惠的大型区域自贸协定。

当我们从庆祝RCEP签署的热烈氛围中走出，未来如何真正实现RCEP的高质量发展，如何应对其中的挑战，似乎更值得我们思考。近期，本刊记者就RCEP建设及中国—东盟次区域合作等相关问题，对南京大学国际关系研究院副院长、教授、博士生导师郑先武进行了专访。这位曾经做过财经记者的教授，从经济学等领域为我们探讨这些问题提供了一个独特的视角。

从贸易转移到贸易创造

毫无疑问，RCEP与所有现行的自贸协定一样，在给成员国带来巨大发展红利、给世界释放多边主义利好的同时，也会带来一些新的挑战。郑先武认为，评价一个自贸协定是否有利于推动区域经济一体化，可以从两个层面来考量，一个是贸易转移，另一个是贸易创造。

“所谓贸易转移，其实就是通过双方合作，你的产品卖到我这，我的产品卖到你那，让一个国家的优势产品变得更具优势，劣势产品有可能更加劣势，最后在比较优势下，产品脱颖而出。但贸易转移有一定的弊端，简单来说，它就如同财富从一个兜里装进另一个兜里，总体财富并没有增加，长期来看，这并不是最佳的发展模式，而且会让贸易双方形成较大的竞争。”郑先武说，“这是国际贸易中常见的模式，但不一定是RCEP和中国—东盟经贸合作高质量发展要追求的模式。”

郑先武指出，RCEP要实现高质量发展，更应该关注贸易创造，也就是通过合作，让双方各有所得，并培育出优秀的企业。而如何实现贸易创造呢？需要发展科技，完善制度、企业管理等。

从经济学视角来探讨如何实现贸易创造，郑先武指出，各方需要有一定的经济互补性。“如果合作的国家间经济互补性很强、链条很长，彼此都需要对方的产品，那么在贸易转移的同时，也会有贸易创造，双方就没有明显的竞争性。”郑先武认为，目前，中国与东盟国家的经济互补性还不够明显，但RCEP的签署把日本、韩国、澳大利亚等发达国家引入后，将有利于整个区域的合作，实现贸易创造。因为这些发达国家与中国—东盟有非常强的经济互补性。

“所以，对于RCEP未来的发展，我们在关注它大体量的同时，更关键的是要考量微观层面是贸易转移更多，还是贸易创造更多。”郑先武说。

科技创新，提升经济互补性

尽管实际中经济的运行是复杂多变的，但郑先武认为，我们可以根据经济规律做一些前瞻性的工作。比如，RCEP未来要实现高质量发展，基本离不开创造更好的经济互补性。而如何提升经济互补性？我们要将打造比较优势的发展策略调整为打造规模优势。

“中美贸易摩擦已经告诉我们，很大程度上比较优势已经算不上优势，别人不生产的东西你生产，本身附加值低还容易受国际市场影响。那么真正的优势是什么？”郑先武进一步阐释道，“是规模优势，这个‘规模不是简单的规模大，而是以科技为支撑的规模优势，甚至是垄断优势。”

目前，中国在5G、高铁、北斗导航等领域已经走在了世界前列，产业优势日益凸显，而这离不开近年来中国对科技创新的重视。未来5年，中国仍将把科技自立自强作为国家发展的战略支撑，通过科技创新赋能传统和新兴产业，中国—东盟可以进一步培育经济互补性。

在提升经济互补性的过程中，郑先武还指出，我们一方面要继续对外开放，向发达国家学习;另一方面，企业要更新企业制度和理念。“不做大杂烩的比较优势，而要做‘两个一，即唯一，不做别人都做的事;专一，一旦选择就脚踏实地地推进，不要急功近利。有了这‘两个一，慢慢就会成为第一。”郑先武说，“RCEP的签署是一个很好的开始，它既显示出中国有强烈的意愿在周边地区做一些引领;也显示出在中美两国竞争的大背景下，中日两国能够搁置争议，在经济领域真正开展合作。而中日两国间的这种合作，将对包含东盟在内的整个亚洲地区产生巨大的影响。”

打通次区域合作的“毛细血管”

中美两国关系发展的不确定性是当前世界各国都无法忽视的国际局势，在两个大国间，中国与日本、东盟的关系，美国与日本、东盟的关系都在发生着微妙的变化。2020年9月，湄公河5国外交部长、东盟秘书长、时任美国副国务卿比根共同宣布启动“湄公河—美国伙伴关系”。在中国与湄公河5国共建澜湄合作机制之后，美国这一举措的意图不言而喻。

挑战之下，澜湄合作未来的发展更需要智慧和实效。而此前，澜湄合作已与国际陆海贸易新通道（以下简称“陆海新通道”）实现了对接。

对此，郑先武认为，澜湄合作有一定的地理指向性，与“陆海新通道”对接的话，能够实现横向的整合。“‘陆海新通道向南延伸，涵盖一些澜湄流域之外的国家，比如新加坡、马来西亚、印尼等。这样的话可以在横向和纵向上进行相应的互补。”郑先武说，其次，澜湄合作与“陆海新通道”关注的重点议题和合作领域也有一定的互补性。比如澜湄合作的三大支柱之一是政治安全，在优先合作领域里涵盖水资源、农业和减贫等，而“陆海新通道”更强调互联互通、贸易投资，注重功能性的一些合作。两者对接有利于资源的互通有无，合作成果更接地气。

“从‘一带一路建设的视角来看，无论是澜湄合作还是‘陆海新通道，它们都如同人体的毛细血管，是最微观的合作领域，如果它们能相互衔接、打通这些血管，那么宏观层面的‘一带一路建设将更为顺利。”郑先武还表示，两者的对接，短期内会为交通基础设施建设市场带来新的发展空间，就中长期而言，它会拉动地区的贸易与投资。

但因为发展基础相对薄弱，鄭先武认为，本地区未来在招商引资方面不必一味追求世界500强、国际一流企业的高大3上，也可以着眼国内，尤其是利用好中国构建以国内循环为主、国内国际双循环相互促进新发展格局的契机，积极与长三角等内生动力强劲的地区进行对接，探寻新的合作机会。

而一個充满市场活力，具有内生动力的澜湄合作与“陆海新通道”，自然会得到更多东盟国家的真诚点赞。

After eight years of tough negotiations， November 15 saw a breakthrough for regional cooperation as 15 Asia-Pacific nations signed the biggest free trade deal in history. Comprising the 10 ASEAN members， Australia， China， Japan， New Zealand and South Korea， the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership （RCEP） will reduce trade barriers across a third of the worlds population and economic output area. Economists at Johns Hopkins University estimate the pact could add US$ 186 billion to the global economy — a welcome boost as we face the worst recession in a century.

Perhaps more significantly， the RCEP will catalyse Asias long-term integration and is a major milestone in the opening up of China， providing a foundation for membership in more advanced trade agreements.

In its 14th five-year plan （2021-2025）， China must adapt to a post-pandemic world shaped by economic uncertainty and the splintering of global value chains. As Chinas first multilateral trade deal — and the first to include Japan and South Korea — the RCEP， which will remove around 90% of tariffs eventually， meshes powerfully with Chinas dual circulation strategy， which aims to boost self-sufficiency while diversifying integration into global markets.

In “international circulation” — foreign trade and investment — the RCEPs common rules of origin will make cross-border trade simpler and cheaper， allowing Chinese firms to optimize resource allocation between the domestic market and the rest of the region.

Links between China and RCEP supply-chain partners such as Vietnam and Malaysia are already deepening in sectors such as electronic manufacturing. Chinas imports of integrated circuits from ASEAN grew by 23.8% in the first half of this year， while its exports of the same to ASEAN grew 29.1%. ASEAN has surpassed the European Union to become Chinas largest trading partner. The RCEP also dovetails with Chinas plans to internationalize the yuan and develop Hainan into the worlds largest free-trade port.

Just as importantly， the RCEP aligns with another core thrust of Chinas dual circulation strategy： boosting domestic consumption. The rise of the Chinese consumer is already one of the most promising growth stories for the post-pandemic world. In its 14th five-year plan， the Chinese government will further increase consumer spending by raising productivity and wages， strengthening the social safety net and expanding economic opportunities in smaller towns and rural areas.

Earlier this month， President Xi Jinping projected that China would import US$ 22 trillion of goods in the next decade. Firms， workers and farmers in RCEP economies are well-placed to tap this bounty.

Chinas role as the RCEPs main magnet for imports will offset its status as an export powerhouse， and help to balance trade dynamics within the pact. This is important as tensions could emerge if the RCEP were to seriously exacerbate trade deficits in member countries.

Over time， cross-border trade and investment will expand the synergies between Chinas dual circulation strategy and the RCEP， reinforcing the pacts cohesion and viability as a vehicle for deeper regional integration. Like fine wine， ASEAN agreements tend to improve with time.

For China， the RCEP could be a stepping stone for more trade agreements， as the Asia-Pacific becomes a coherent trading zone like Europe or North America， albeit on a grander scale. For example， the RCEP boosts Chinas prospects of sealing the trilateral free-trade agreement with Japan and South Korea. It also weakens obstacles to China joining the CPTPP.

Previously， some voices at home had raised doubts over China joining the RCEP， let alone the less flexible CPTPP， seen as a forerunner of even higher-standard trade agreements. Success in the RCEP will help quell this domestic opposition while reforms take Chinas economy closer to CPTPP rules on issues such as intellectual property， market access and foreign investment.

The two regional agreements are by no means mutually exclusive — seven countries are members of both. In fact， they could form complementary tracks to regional integration： the rigorous CPTPP for more advanced economies and the less-demanding RCEP for developing Asian countries. And China could eventually help to bridge the two projects — under the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific or some other mechanism.

Given that US President Joe Biden is open to renegotiating the pact his predecessor abandoned， the worlds two largest economies could one day come under its common umbrella of trade rules. Not only would this help to stabilize relations between China and the United States， it could also provide a template for World Trade Organization reforms.

International trade and cooperation have suffered in recent years under the weight of populism， protectionism and now the pandemic. Encouraging news on vaccine development and Bidens election victory have raised hopes that the world can turn a page in 2021. As a catalyst for Asian integration and Chinas continued opening-up， the RCEP is yet another reason to be optimistic.