段娟娟 张未靖 李荣日 孙冰川

摘要：以2006—2018年中國大陆31个省域（市区）体育产业为研究对象，采用空间关联分析法、标准差椭圆和灰色关联模型等分析我国体育产业时空演化特征、空间分异特征及关联因素。研究结果表明：全国体育产业上升态势明显，省域（市区）体育产业发展不均衡，但在空间上呈现显著正相关;体育产业演化具有明显的空间集聚性，呈现以江浙沪皖及邻近省为热点区域，以青甘川为中心的冷点区域及东北-西北-西南的环形随机分布区域;体育产业空间重心大致在116.4712°E～115.4904°E，31.2132°N～31.1007°N之间，标准差椭圆变化幅度不大，呈“南-北”格局，但有向“东北-西南”方向转变的趋势。关联因素实证研究表明，体育产业演化是由经济、政府、社会、产业、市场和科技等因素的共同作用结果。

关键词：体育产业;时空分异;演化特征;关联因素

中图分类号：G80-052文献标识码：A文章编号：1006-2076（2021）03-0031-10

Evolution characteristics and associated factors of sports industry evolution in China from the perspective ofspatial-temporal differentiation

DUAN Juanjuan1， ZHANG Weijing2， LI Rongri3，SUN Bingchuan4

1.School of Economics，Fuyang Normal University， Fuyang 236037， Anhui， China; 2. College of Physical Culture， Tianjin University of Sport， Tianjin 301617， China; 3. Research Institute of Sport Economics， East China University of Science and Technology， Shanghai 200237， China;4.Shandong University of Finance and Economics， Shandong， Jinan 250014，China

Abstract：Taking sports industry of 31 provinces （municipalities and autonomous regions） as the research object from 2006 to 2018， this paper makes a quantitative comprehensive research on the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics， spatial differentiation characteristics and associated factors in China by using the methods of spatial correlation analysis， standard deviational ellipse and grey relational model. The results show that the national sports industry is on the rise， provincial （municipalities and autonomous regions） sports industry development is not balanced， but its spatial positive correlation is significant; The sports industry evolution has obvious spatial agglomeration， it takes Jiangsu， Zhejiang， Shanghai， Anhui and neighboring provinces as the hot spots area， the cold spots area centers on Qinghai， Gansu and Sichuan， and the annular random distribution area is annular including the northeast - northwest - southwest region. The spatial gravity center of sports industry in different years was between 116.4712°E～115.4904°E， 31.2132°N～31.1007°N， the standard deviational ellipse changes little， showing a pattern of “south-north” and tending to shift to the direction of “northeast - southwest”. The empirical study of associated factors shows that the sports industry evolution is driven by multiple factors， such as economy， government， society， industry， market and technology.

Key words：sports industry; evolution characteristics; spatial-temporal differentiation; associated factors

自20世纪90年代足球职业之路起，我国体育产业经历了近30年的持续发展，逐渐由体育事业的组成部分成长为相对独立、完整的产业体系，在发展区域经济、增进民生福祉、满足政治诉求等方面展现出日益增强的作用效应。根据中央政府发布的《2018年全国体育产业总规模和增加值数据公告》，2018年全国体育产业增加值10 078亿元，对经济贡献超过1.1，其中23.8万个体育产业法人单位吸纳从业人员443.9万人。然而，体育产业在“加速跑”的背后也遭遇种种制约瓶颈：从时间进程看，我国体育产业增加值持续稳定增长，但仍低于国外发达国家水平;从空间范围看，我国省域（市区）体育产业发展不平衡，产业结构不合现象依然明显。……