徐伟平，杨皓森

摘要：近年来，中国政府对减少农药施用提出明确要求，然而除草剂作为三大类农药之一，其施用量却不断攀升，如何在确保产量的前提下，减少农户对除草剂的施用成为迫切需要解决的问题。本研究基于东北、华北大豆主产区的农户调查数据，通过构建链式中介效应，揭示大豆种植农户家庭禀赋和对转基因的认知程度如何影响农户的施药行为。结果显示，家庭人数对除草剂施用种类有显著负向影响，农户对转基因大豆的认知程度对除草剂施用种类有显著正向影响。同时，家庭人数通过农业收入间接影响除草剂施用种类，家庭人数通过“农业收入→除草剂成本”间接影响除草剂施用种类，对转基因的认知通过除草剂成本间接影响除草剂施用种类。

关键词：除草剂;链式中介效应;农户行为

中图分类号：S451.2文献标识码：A文章编号：1000-4440（2021）06-1601-07

Analysis on herbicide application behavior of soybean farmers based on chain mediating effect

XU Wei-ping1，YANG Hao-sen2

（1.Institute of Food and Nutrition Development， Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs， Beijing 100081， China;2.Big Data Development Department， State Information Center， Beijing 100045， China）

Abstract：In recent years， the Chinese government has made clear requirements for reducing the application of pesticides. However， herbicide as one of the three major types of pesticides， its application amount has been increasing. Reducing the application of herbicides by farmers under the premise of ensuring yield has become an urgent problem to be solved. Based on the survey data of farmers in the main soybean producing areas of Northeast and North China， a chain mediating effect model was constructed to reveal the endowment of soybean farmers and the impact of their cognition of herbicide-tolerant genetically modified soybeans on herbicide use behavior. The results showed that the number of households had a significant negative impact on the types of herbicide application， and the cognition of genetically modified soybeans had a significant positive impact on the types of herbicide application. Moreover， the number of households indirectly affects the types of herbicide application through agricultural income， the number of households indirectly affects the types of herbicide application through "agricultural income → herbicide costs"， and the awareness of genetic modification indirectly affects the types of herbicide application through herbicide costs.

Key words：herbicide;chain mediating effect;farmer behavior

大豆既是重要的糧食作物，也是重要的食用植物油压榨原料和饲料蛋白加工原料作物，对国家粮食安全和居民膳食结构改善意义重大。随着中国经济的快速发展、居民生活水平的不断提高，食用油脂和动物源食品的消费需求持续增长，对大豆的需求量快速增加。自1996年以来，中国大豆产需缺口逐年扩大，需要依靠进口弥补，并由世界大豆出口国之一转变为进口大国。据中国海关数据，2003年中国大豆进口量超过2.07×107 t，排名居世界首位。2019年中国进口大豆达到8.86×107 t，超过当年大豆消费量的80%，由于中国大豆对外贸易依存度过高，且进口来源国又相对集中，从美国、巴西、阿根廷3个国家进口大豆的数量占中国大豆进口总量的比例超过95%，在逆全球化和新冠肺炎疫情双重挑战面前，中国大豆的贸易风险尤为突出。……