黄嘉煜 任雯菁 黄勇

摘 要：高新技术特征决定高新技术固化与扩散具有复杂多变性，与市场和产业发展需求相比有较大差距，主要体现在不能完全跟上技术研发节奏。若能有一套選择机制适用于高新技术中关键技术的确定，从高新技术研发阶段就展开相关工作，将有效提高高新技术成果产业化成功率。面对高新技术产业化过程中产生的海量技术方案提出一种选择模型，采用信息熵理论计算待选方案各影响因素的权重系数，进而选出最合适的技术方案，以期尽量减少决策过程中的人为主观性，达到规避技术创新风险、促进企业发展的目的。

关键词：信息熵;高新技术;决策模型;决策算法

DOI：10. 11907/rjdk. 201778 开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

中图分类号：TP301文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7800（2020）008-0105-04

Abstract： The characteristics of high and new technology determine the complexity and variability of the solidification and diffusion of high and new technology. Compared with the demand of market and industrial development， there is still a big gap between the current development and the demand of market and industrial development. It is mainly reflected in that it cannot completely keep up with the pace of technological research and development. If a set of selection mechanism is suitable for the determination of high-tech key technology scheme， then relevant work can be carried out from the stage of high-tech research and development， which will effectively improve the success rate of industrialization of high-tech achievements. In the face of a large number of technical solutions produced in the process of high-tech industrialization， this paper attempts to put forward a selection model for how to determine the high-tech key technology scheme. The weight coefficient of each influencing factor of the scheme to be selected is calculated by using the information entropy theory， and then the most appropriate technical scheme is selected， so as to minimize the human subjectivity in the decision-making process， so as to ensure the enterprise's own benefit and development and avoid the risk of technological innovation.

Key Words： information entropy， high technology， decision-making model，decision-making algorithm

0 引言

高新技术产品技术性能复杂，一般需要在广泛利用现代科技成果基础上，以高昂的投入支持知识开拓和积累，不断进行技术创新，用于研究开发产品的经费高达总销售额的10%～30%[1-2]。从原始技术研究阶段就要面对无数备选方案，研究人员需花费大量的时间和精力才能取得成功，而且常常会遇到不可避免的失败。有些方案在取得时甚至还看不出它有任何应用前景，即使选出了目标方案，为保证产品稳定性进行的研发和中试工作产生的衍生方案可能比原始阶段高出数倍到数十倍、甚至上百倍。其探索处于科学前沿，成败难以事先预测，要么取得巨大成功，要么酿成严重失利。……