吴仁彪 王自强 汪万维 张妍

摘  要： 针对传统空域运行安全风险评估方法中存在的点值评估随意性和间断性等问题，该文提出基于区间层次分析法（IAHP）和信息熵法结合的空域运行风险评估方法。通过广泛采集空域内航空器运行产生的告警信息，深入分析并挖掘出对空域运行产生影响的风险因子，构建一套新的基于“人、机、环”分类思路的风险评估多层指标体系。所提方法主要采用IAHP和信息熵方法分别对评估指标赋权，同时给出主客观权重组合模型，既保证了评估数据的连续性，也兼顾到评估要素的客观性，并在风险隶属度矩阵基础上进行模糊综合评价。最后对某飞行情报区一段时间的运行状态进行实例评估，结果表明，该模型在空域运行风险方面具有良好的适用性和有效性，为空中交通安全风险管理提供理论上的决策支持。

关键词： 风险评估; 空域运行; 指标赋权; 组合建模; 模糊评价; 案例分析

中图分类号： TN911.2?34; X949                 文献标识码： A                       文章编号： 1004?373X（2020）06?0051?06

Risk assessment of airspace operation based on combination weighting of

IAHP and information entropy

WU Renbiao， WANG Ziqiang， WANG Wanwei， ZHANG Yan

（Tianjin Key Laboratory of Intelligent Signal and Image Processing， Civil Aviation University of China， Tianjin 300300， China）

Abstract： As the problem of randomness and discontinuity of point value assessment in the traditional airspace operation safety risk assessment methods， a risk assessment method of airspace operation based on the combination of interval analytic hierarchy process （IAHP） and information entropy method is proposed. The warning information generated by aircraft operation in airspace is collected widely， from which the risk factors affecting airspace operation are deeply analyzed and excavated， and a new multi?level index system of risk assessment based on the classification thinking of “people， machine and environment” is constructed. In this method， the IAHP and information entropy are used to weighting the assessment indexes respectively， and the combination model of subjective and objective weightings is given， which not only ensures the continuity of the evaluation data， but also takes into account the objectivity of the evaluation elements， and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out on the basis of risk membership matrix. The operational status of a flight information region for some time is evaluated by an example， and the evaluation result shows that the model has good applicability and validity in airspace operation risk. It provides theoretical decision support for the risk management of the air traffic safety.

Keywords： risk assessment; airspace operation; index weighting; composite modeling; fuzzy evaluation; case analysis

0  引  言

随着我国空中交通流量不断增长，空域安全形势日益复杂，航空器飞行不安全事件时有发生，民航界高度重视空中交通运行的安全风险管理。风险评估是航空安全风险管理体系中的关键一环，其在后续风险控制的过程中发挥重要的作用，是保证航空持续安全的必要前提。目前从空域运行宏观角度分析一段时间内航空器飞行产生的异常数据，定量描述其对周边空域运行的影响程度，进而评估空域运行的整体安全风险水平的研究较少。……