马宇晨 吴杰伟

摘要：2019年，菲律宾政局平稳，经济增长迅速，外交成果丰硕。执政党在中期选举中获胜，南部和平进程得到实质性推进。尽管禁毒战争引发国内和国际舆论压力，但是并未对杜特尔特政府产生影响。经济增速在下半年重新回到预期水平，同时各项经济指标均表现良好，国内支柱产业均有所增长，旅游业成为重点增长的行业。外交方面，菲律宾与中国的关系得到提升，政治、经济和人文交流持续升温;与美国的军事关系保持平稳，但因为人权问题而导致外交冲突;与其他周边国家开展独立自主的多元外交。

关键词：菲律宾;回顾;展望

[中图分类号] D734.1            [文献标识码]  A                [文章编号] 1003-2479（2020）01-072-12

The Philippines： Review of 2019 and Prospect of 2020

MA Yuchen， WU Jiewei

Abstract： In 2019， the Philippines political situation was stable， the economic growth was rapid and the diplomatic achievements were plentiful. PDP-Laban won the mid-term election and the peace process in Mindanao was substantially advanced. Despite the pressure of domestic and international public opinion caused by the drug war， it did not affect the Duterte government. Economic growth returned to expectation in the second half of the year. Meanwhile，the economic indicators performed well， with growth in all domestic pillar industries， and tourism became a key booming industry. In terms of diplomacy， the Philippine-China relation have been enhanced， and political， economic and cultural exchanges have continued to heat up; Military relations with the United States remained stable， but human rights issues caused diplomatic conflicts; The Philippines also developed an independent foreign policy with other neighboring countries and gained financial and security support.

Key Words： The Philippines; Review; Prospect

引  言

2019年7月22日，菲律賓总统杜特尔特第四次发表国情咨文，前总统阿基诺三世连续四年缺席以隐晦地表达对杜特尔特政府的不满。尽管阿基诺三世及其所属的自由党仍在不断批评现任政府，但是杜特尔特依然赢得了极高的支持度。杜特尔特正在以完全不同于其前任的执政方针和外交政策为菲律宾国家发展开创新的局面，在政治、经济及外交领域为菲律宾带来崭新气象。

一、内政：执政党获得中期选举大胜，维稳

工作成效卓著

2019年是菲律宾的中期选举年，包括12名参议员、81位省长在内的席位和职位将在选举中确定人选;禁毒战争中的伤亡人数进一步增加，引起国内反对派和国际社会的持续关注;《摩洛组织法》的实施以及与“摩洛伊斯兰解放阵线”的和解标志着现任政府处理国内分离主义运动取得初步成效。……