李玥 曹慧敏 杨文瑾

摘要    本文以正规信贷约束的内涵和识别机制为基础，对不同类别的信贷约束测度进行了分析，运用Tobit和多元线性回归模型分别实证研究了正规信贷约束对农户主客观福祉损失的影响。研究结果表明，需求约束强度每减少0.01，收入、消费和资产分别增加0.41%、1.29%和0.78%;供给约束强度每减少0.01，三者分别增加0.73%、0.24%和0.60%，正规信贷约束的产生限制农户的生产投入资金规模或创业行为，导致农民增收困难，进而显著降低农户主观福祉。受访者年龄、健康状况、职业、人均纯收入、固定资产原值以及与周围人信任程度对主观福祉皆有显著正向影响;受教育程度、职业、劳动力占比和经营土地面积对客观福祉皆有显著正向影响。

关键词    需求型约束;供给型约束;正规信贷约束强度;福祉损失;Tobit模型

中图分类号    F832.43;F323.8        文献标识码    A        文章编号   1007-5739（2019）12-0259-04

Abstract    Based on the connotation and recognition mechanism of formal credit constraints，this paper analyzed the measurement of different types of credit constraints，and used Tobit and multiple linear regression models to empirically study the impact of formal credit constraints on subjective and objective welfare loss of farmers.The results showed that，for every 0.01 reduction in the intensity of demand constraint，the income，consumption and assets increased by 0.41%，1.29% and 0.78%，respectively.For every 0.01 reduction in the intensity of supply constraint，the three increased by 0.73%，0.24% and 0.60%，respectively.The generation of formal credit constraint limits the scale of production investment or entrepreneurial behavior of farmers，resulting in the difficulty of increasing farmers′ income and thus significantly reducing the subjective welfare of farmers.Age，health status，occupation，net income，original value of fixed assets and trust level with people around each interviewee all have significant positive effects on subjective welfare.Education level，occupation，labor force proportion and land area have significant positive effects on objective welfare.

Key words    demand constraint;supply constraint;formal credit constraint intensity;welfare loss;Tobit model

正規信贷约束在众多国内外文献中都被认为是农村经济发展和生活水平的重要影响因素，2018年7月，中央财政部发布消息将积极落实中央一号文件有关精神，结合农村金融改革发展需要不断完善和优化政策措施，强调农村金融健康发展的重要性。由于经济作物价格上涨引起农民扩大生产的需要，加之住房、婚丧、教育等生活消费支出的增加，农民贷款需求增长较快，而农村银行营业网点偏少、放贷要求较高、贷款信息不透明化及关系型贷款增多等原因使得农户资金需求满足程度降低，农村信贷供需矛盾日益突出，正规信贷约束强度逐步提升，严重影响了农户生产性和生活性资金投入，降低了福祉水平。……