王文倩　高明秀　朗坤

摘要：黄河三角洲作为世界上陆地资源增长最快的地区之一，一直以来都是土地利用/覆被变化研究的热点区域。本研究以东营市垦利区为例，在解译和分析研究区2005、2009和2015年3期遥感影像的基础上，通过构建土地利用动态分析模型组，分析研究区土地利用动态变化特征，并预测未来的土地利用状况。结果表明：2005-2015年间垦利区各地类均处于变动之中，2005-2009年间研究区盐荒地所占面积比例最大，2009-2015年间耕地面积超过盐荒地成为垦利区面积最大的地类;在空间变化剧烈程度方面，2005-2009年土地利用变化的剧烈程度稍大于后一期。耕地、水域、城乡建设用地迅速增加的面积，主要由盐荒地转变而来。预测到2025年，建设用地进一步扩张，林地和草地进一步减少，草地将成为面积最小的地类，而耕地成为面积最大的地类。本研究为预测垦利区土地利用的发展趋势及实现区域土地的可持续利用提供了科学依据。

关键词：黄河三角洲;土地利用/覆被变化;模型组;动态变化特征;趋势预测

Change Characteristics and Trend Prediction ofLand Use in the Yellow River Delta Based on Model GroupWang Wengqian， Gao Mingxiu， Lang Kun

Abstract

The Yellow River Delta is one of the fastest growing areas of land resources in the world. Andit is the focus area of researches on land use and cover changes. In this article， taking Kenli district of Dongy-ing City as the research area， we analyzed the dynamic change characteristics and predicted the land use statusin the future by constructing the dynamic analysis model group of land use based on the interpretation of remotesensing images of 2005， 2009 and 2015. The results showed that all the land use types in Kenli Districtchanged in 2005 - 2015. The salt wasteland occupied the largest area during 2005 - 2009， and the cultivatedland area was the largest during 2009 - 2015. During the research period， the spatial dynamic change ampli-tude during 2005 -2009 was greater than that during 2009 - 2015. There was rapid growth in the area of con-struction land， cultivated land and water area， which were mainly transformed from salt wasteland. It was pre-dicted that in 2025 ， the construction land would expand further， while the woodland and grassland would de-crease further; the cultivated land would be the type with the largest area， and the grassland would be onewith the least area. These results would provide scientific bases for predicting the developing trend of land useand achieving the sustainable use of land in Kenli District.

Keywords

The Yellow River Delta; Land use and cover change ; Model group; Dynamic chnange char-acteristics ; Trend prediction

20世紀90年代，在“国际地图与生物圈计划（IGBP）”与“全球环境变化人文计划（IHDP）”两大国际组织的推动下，土地利用/土地覆被变化（ LUCC）研究成为全球环境变化研究领域的热点[1]。利用RS技术提取土地利用动态变化的数据，揭示其时空变化的趋势、驱动机制及演变特征，是该领域今后研究中的重点方向，国内外学者已开展大量研究并取得一系列的成果[2]。1995年“土地利用/覆被变化科……