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Outside the Xing Bao Zhonghuan“senior living community” on a mild spring day in Shanghai recently,an old lady was riding a tricycle around the forecourt1forecourt大片空地（在加油站、旅馆等前面，常用来停车）。,and a group of spry2spry充满生气的；敏捷的。elders were performing tai chi exercises to a video playing on a television.

After that,there would be half an hour of “finger exercises”,plus an after-lunch lesson in how to paint a chicken,using traditional Chinese brush techniques.

不久前一个和煦的春日，上海星堡中环“养老社区”门外，一个老年妇女正绕着前院骑三轮车，还有一群身姿矫健的老人在跟着电视录像练习太极。

之后会有半小时的“手指操”，午饭之后还要学习用中国传统水墨技法画小鸡。

[2]There was hardly a wheelchair to be seen,and no one who looked like a nurse.This was the kind of eldercare facility that many industry analysts predicted would not be popular in China,where demand was forecast to be highest for heavily medicalised facilities where seniors would go to be cared for round-the-clock—not to ride tricycles.

[2]这里几乎看不到轮椅，也没有护士。许多行业分析人士曾表示此类养老院在中国不会受到青睐，他们预测需求量最大的是高度医疗化的养老机构，老人们在那里能够享受全天候的护理服务，而不是踩三轮车。

[3]China’s one-child policy has skewed3skew走偏；歪曲。its population toward the grey end,presenting a demographic opportunity for the eldercare industry.By 2030,the proportion of the population over 65 could have doubled to 18 per cent,according to UN data.By mid-century,China could have nearly 500m people aged over 60—more than the population of the US.

[3]中国的独生子女政策导致人口老化，为养老行业带来机遇。联合国的数据显示，到2030年，65岁以上人群所占比例将增长一倍，达到18%。至本世纪中期，中国60岁以上人口将接近5亿，超过美国人口总数。

[4]Though there is a shortage of hospital beds for Chinese pensioners needing long-term care or mediumterm rehabilitation,retirement homes that provide significant medical services have unexpectedly proved less popular than facilities where seniors live independently,and receive little nursing.

[4]虽然医院床位难以满足退休人员长期护理和中期康复的需求，但出人意料的是，比起提供大量医疗服务的养老机构，护理服务相对较少、老人独立生活的养老社区更受欢迎。

[5]Foreign-invested eldercare providers say they have run up against barriers,from culture to cost,that have made it hard to fill even a few hundred beds in a city the size and wealth of Shanghai,with more than 3.5m people of retirement age.

[5]外资养老机构表示，他们遇到了从文化到成本等方方面面的障碍。在上海这样一个拥有超过350万退休老人的富裕大都市，区区几百张床位都很难住满。

[6]Previously,in this culture heavily influenced by Confucian notions of filial piety,“you would think that sending your elder to a nursing home in China—it’s unheard of”,says Michael Li,Executive Director of Cascade Healthcare,which has two senior housing facilities in Shanghai.“But as the society progresses,more and more people don’t have any choice but to accept reality: we have to work,we commute,we have our kids,”he adds.And with more only children marrying other only children,there are fewer young people to care for each elder.

[6]以前，儒家孝道思想对中国文化影响深远。“你会觉得把老人送到养老院是件‘闻所未闻’的事情。”李·迈克说道，他是凯健国际老年康复护理机构的执行董事，该公司在上海开办了两家养老院，“但是随着社会进步，越来越多的人别无选择，只能接受现实：我们需要工作，需要出去上班，自己还有孩子。”而且夫妻双方都是独生子女的情况越来越普遍，每个子女得照顾更多的老人。

[7]But price is an issue: an average room in the Xuhui facility can cost Rmb10,000 ($1,600)a month or more,and as much as Rmb15,000 per month more for nursing care.Many Chinese elders,raised in times of famine and political upheaval,have led a frugal life and would rather leave behind their money than spend it.Middle-aged children are often able and willing to pay,but Mr Li says that “some families insist we don’t tell the parents how much it costs...or they won’t stay”.

[7]不过，价格是个问题：位于徐汇区的这家养老机构，一个普通房间的月租金达1万元人民币（合1600美元），甚至更高，而且每月护理费也高达1.5万元。很多中国老年人经历过饥荒和政治动荡，一辈子生活节俭，宁愿把钱留给子女也不肯自己花掉。他们的子女已经人到中年，通常有能力也心甘情愿为父母花这笔钱。但李先生表示：“一些家庭坚决不让我们告知老人费用是多少……否则老人就不愿意住了。”

[8]And even at levels that he admits“shock” some locals unused to the high costs of eldercare in developed societies,Cascade is not making money.“We aren’t even talking about a return yet;we are just trying to stop the losses,” he says.Beijing has encouraged private retirement home operators to fill the gap in senior care,even offering incentives to local operators.But state insurance will not pay for private care,and Chinese seniors often do not trust private healthcare.

[8]李先生自己也承认，一些本地人不适应发达社会高昂的老年护理费用，对收费标准感到“震惊”，可是即便如此，凯健国际仍不赚钱。李先生说：“我们甚至还没开始考虑赢利，现在只是在努力止损。”中国政府鼓励私营机构填补养老服务的空缺，甚至针对本地经营者出台鼓励措施。但私营护理服务产生的费用不在国家保险范围之内，中国老人也常常对私营医疗保健缺乏信任。

[9]“Some groups are offering a highly medical product...comparable with a skilled nursing facility in the US.The challenge is that you need to charge between Rmb15,000 and Rmb20,000 a month just to cover operations and Rmb25,000 to Rmb30,000 to make any money,and that is not where the market is for private pay long-term care in China,”says Chris Alberti,co-founder of Cascade.

[9]凯健国际联合创始人克里斯·阿尔伯蒂说：“一些机构提供高级医疗护理服务……可以媲美美国的专业护理中心。可问题在于，要想收回运营成本，定价就要达到每月1.5万至2万元人民币；想要赢利，就得收费2.5万至3万元人民币。这不符合中国市场对私人长期护理的价格需求。”

[10]But Zhang Fengguan,65,is certain that Xing Bao Zhonghuan is worth the money.

“At first my son strongly objected because he thought it was not filial to send an elder to a place such as this.But this is just an inevitable choice for us.My son is an only child,he has a 14-year-old daughter,he is busy with his own work and looking after her...the only problem is the price here is a bit high.But we have been living a hard life our entire lifetime.It think it’s reasonable now for us to have something great.”

[10]但是65岁的张凤冠（音译）确信星堡中环物有所值。

“一开始我儿子强烈反对，觉得把老人送进养老院这种地方是大不孝。但我们别无选择。我只有这么一个儿子，他有个14岁的女儿需要照顾，还要忙于工作……唯一的问题就是这里价格有点偏高。但我们过了一辈子苦日子，现在也该享享福了。”

[11]Some officials believe that the problems facing China’s elderly can be solved through combined efforts from family,the local community,and society as a whole.China’s goal is to establish a support network for senior citizens that provides medical care and helps them avoid loneliness through scholarly pursuits and entertainment.The network would also encourage senior citizens to continue serving society after retirement age by using the knowledge they’ve acquired over the years.■

[11]一些官员相信，只要各个家庭、当地社区和整个社会齐心协力，中国人口老龄化带来的各种问题便能得以解决。中国致力于建立养老支持网络，既能为老年人提供医疗保健服务，又能帮助他们通过课程学习和娱乐活动排遣孤独。这种机制还鼓励老人在退休后利用多年来积累的知识继续服务社会。□