王曰芬 许杜娟 杨振怡 罗浩

〔摘 要〕[目的/意义]针对同一事件新闻报道与舆情评论既相互依存又偏离的现象，通过话题识别与主题关联分析，探索新闻报道引发的舆情评论在主题内容与时间阶段上的异同，拟为研究以舆情评论表达的舆情事件和以新闻报道表达的社会现实之间的共振与偏离，进而为探究社会舆情传播规律提供参考，为服务政府科学决策提供依据。[方法/过程]以拉斯韦尔（5W）模型、LDA主题模型和Python工具为基础，设计研究思路和流程，从腾讯新闻和知乎平台上抓取新闻报道和评论的数据，经过处理加工过后加以分析挖掘。[结果/结论]研究发现：舆情事件主题会一定程度偏离社会现实主题，衍生出更多隐性主题；舆情事件与社会现实的发展走向较一致；此外，社交媒体相较于新闻媒体所衍生的舆情事件主题更多，而两者反映的社会现实主题类似。

〔关键词〕舆情评论；新闻报道；主题发现；舆情事件；社会现实；关联分析

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2018.06.001

〔中图分类号〕G203 〔文献标识码〕A 〔文章编号〕1008-0821（2018）06-0003-08

〔Abstract〕[Purpose/Significance]Regarding to the phenomenon that news reports and public opinions of the same event were interdependent and also deviated from each other，the paperexplore the differences and similarities of public opinions triggered by news reports in subject content and time phasing by topic detection and subject association analysis.This research planed to study the resonance and deviation between public events reflected in public opinions and social reality reflected in news reports，which would provide a reference for exploring the communication rule of social public opinions and offer a basis for government to make scientific decisions.[Process/Method]Based on Lasswells 5W communication model，LDA model and Python，the paper designed research ideas and process，crawled the corpus of news reports and their corresponding comments from Tencent News and Quaro and deeply analyzed the processed corpus.[Results/Conclusion]The research results indicated that more derivative latent subjects would be found in public opinions events which partly diverged from the subjects of social reality；the developing trends of public opinions events conformed with that of social reality；in addition，subjects of public opinions events reflected in social media were more than news media，while the subject content of social reality seemed similar on these two platforms.

〔Key words〕public opinions；news reports；topic discovery；public opinions events；social reality；association analysis

舆情被认为是公众对于现实社会及社会中各种现象、问题所表达的信念、态度、意见和情绪表现的总和，是实现社会调控必不可少的制约力量[1]。而舆情事件是指在一定时期、一定的社会空间内，被公众广泛关注的事件，通常通过某种中介（一般是媒体）扩散，促使公众产生某种具有广泛影响力的倾向性，并非所有的事件都必然成为舆情事件[2]。同时，新闻是对现实社会的建构[3]，是对社会现实事件的表达与反映。……