邹日青 郭恩栋 于天洋 李倩 李红旭

摘要：為研究供水管网在不同地震烈度下的漏损情况和水力特性，基于管道地震破坏评估模型和概率分析方法，对不同地震烈度下管线的破坏概率和渗漏状态进行了计算分析，引入折减系数对管段抗震可靠度分析方法进行改进并与传统计算方法比较，验证了其合理性。发展了Monte Carlo模拟技术在供水管网流分析方面的应用，并考虑带渗漏和爆管两种出流方式。编制程序对一大型管网进行了模拟分析，给出了震后带漏损情况下管网的漏失率和破坏情况，结果与实际地震灾害情况相符。

关键词：供水管网；地震破坏；漏损；蒙特卡洛模拟；水力模拟

中图分类号：TU991.33；P315.9 文献标志码：A文章编号：16744764（2018）02008305

收稿日期：20170628

基金项目：中国地震局工程力学研究所中央级公益性研究所基本科研业务费专项（2014A01）；“十二五”国家科技支撑计划（2015BAK17B05）；中国地震局创新团队发展计划

作者简介：邹日青（1991），男，主要从事生命线工程抗震研究，Email：zou372484675@163.com。

郭恩栋（通信作者），男，研究员，博士生导师，Email： iemged@263.net。

Received：20170628

Foundation item： Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research Expenses of Institute of Engineering Mechanics， China Earthquake Administration（No.2014A01）； National SciTech Support Plan（No.2015BAK17B05）；Innovation Team Development Plan of China Earthquake Administration

Author brief：Zou Riqing （1991）， main research interest：being engaged in seismic research on lifeline engineering，Email：zou372484675@163.com.

Guo Endong（correspondent author），professor， doctoral supervisor， Email： iemged@263.net.Earthquake leakage analysis of the water supply pipeline

network based on monte carlo simulation

Zou Riqing，Guo Endong，Yu Tianyang，Li Qian，Li Hongxu

（Institute of Engineering Mechanics； Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration，

China Earthquake Administration， Harbin 150080，P.R.China）

Abstract：The damage probability and the leakage level of pipelines in different earthquake intensity were calculated according to earthquake damage evaluation model and probability theory for the reason of studying the leakage and hydraulic characteristics of water supply network in ground motion. The reduction coefficient was introduced to improve the seismic reliability analysis of the pipe section， by means of comparing with the traditional calculation method， the rationality was verified. Monte Carlo simulation technology application in the service of water supply network was developed， with considering leakage and burst of pipes as well as compiling the program， the earthquake leakage of a largescale water supply pipeline network had been calculated. The result is consistent with the actual earthquake disaster and provides an effective means for evaluating the failure state of the seismic function of the water supply pipeline network.

Keywords：water supply network； earthquake damage； leakage； monte carlo simulation； hydraulic simulation

供水系统作为生命线工程的重要组成部分是社会生产和人民生活不可或缺的，但供水管网地震破坏后漏点定位及修复难度大，且震后常处于带渗漏低压供水状态。如2008年汶川地震，地震波及大半个中国及多个亚洲国家和地区，造成了四川省20余个市县供水系统各类工程结构的破坏。绵竹市供水系统全部瘫痪，供水管网破损严重，初步估计供水管网80%破裂，城市管网漏失率达85%，2010年玉树地震，玉树州结古镇经过水利部门全力抢修并建立了58个应急供水点，但日供水量也不到震前供水量的40%。……