Zhang Xin

(Chongqing Academy of S&T for Development,Chongqing,401123)

Abstract: The new material industry is an important part of strategic emerging industries. This paper analyzes the current status of the development of new materials industry in Chongqing based on the principle and method of technology foresight and make technology foresight on the development trend and development prospect of Chongqing’s new materials industry to provide reference for government department decision-making.

Keywords: new material industry;technology foresight;Chongqing Municipality

Introduction

The new materials industry is an important part of strategic emerging industries. The new materials industry, which incorporates the advanced achievements of many contemporary disciplines, is the basic industry supporting the development of the national economy and the material basis for the development of high-tech industries. After years of hard work, China’s new material industry has gradually developed from low-level to high-level in the international industrial layout and has achieved remarkable results in some key preparation technologies, process technologies, new product development, energy conservation and environmental protection. In order to accelerate the cultivation and expansion of strategic emerging industries and promote the upgrading of industrial structure,Chongqing Municipality has successively issued the“Chongqing’s New Material Industry Cluster Development Plan”(2015-2020)and“Chongqing’s New Material Industry Development Implementation Plan”to promote the formation of high-end light alloy material manufacturing base, glass fiber and composite material manufacturing base and chemical new material manufacturing base in Chongqing Municipality and create a complete graphene industrial chain to build Chongqing into an important modern manufacturing base of the country.Based on the principle and method of technology foresight, this paper analyzes the status quo of the development of Chongqing’s new material industry and make technology foresight for the development trend and development prospect of Chongqing’s new material industry to provide reference for government department decision-making.

1 Preparation for Preliminary Work

1.1 Determination of Organizational Form

A technology foresight expert group should be set up. A group of new material experts will be formed by scholars,industry and management experts in the field of new material. The team leader and deputy team leader will be responsible for determining the sub-fields,technical topics and topic description s of the new material field. The expert group of each sub-area of materials is produced by the expert group leader in the field of new materials.The team leader is responsible for convening the member of the sub-field expert groups.The sub-field expert group is responsible for proposing the technical topics in this sub-field and completing the description of the technical topics. Delphi questionnaire experts are recommended by the new material field expert group and sub-area expert group.

1.2 Determination of technology foresight procedure

The author carefully organizes the entire technology foresight process and organize implementation according to certain working procedures. It is roughly divided into three stages.The first is the early stage of foresight, including determining the technology foresight goals and tasks of the new material field in Chongqing in the next 10 years, establishing technology foresight organizations and collecting preparation materials. The second is the implementation of foresight, including the identification of technology foresight fields, expert groups, the formation of alternative technology lists,designing questionnaires, implementating surveys,statistical analysis, new material field foresight reports, expert demonstrations, etc. The third is the late stage of foresight,which refers to the combination of technology foresight results with the formulation of science and technology policies and plans and becomes the basis for a more strategic plan with clearer goals.At this stage,foresight results should be widely publicized, making it the basis for the formulation of science and technology policies and plans by various government departments, the development of medium and long-term development strategies and the clearing of R&D research directions and research priorities by research institutions.

1.3 The Formation of Technology Foresight Expert Team and Working Group

Through the visits of experts in the field of new material, it is determined that 20 experts from the universities, research institutes, government departments and enterprises will be the technology foresight expert group of the new material field in Chongqing for the next 10 years and 1 consultant, 1 team leader and 2 vice-group leaders will be identified. At the same time, the main tasks of the expert group and sub-field expert group in the new material field are clarified;the key points of technical topic selection and description are clarified; the Delphi questionnaire is preliminarily designed and the overall time schedule of the foresight is also preliminarily arranged. At the meeting, the expert group decided from the actual needs of Chongqing to identify five major sub-fields in the field of new material,namely graphene and nanomaterials,plastic optical fiber, high-end automotive, electronics,equipment steel, light alloy for high-end transportation equipment, high-performance carbon fiber,glass fiber and composite materials,etc.

2 The Research and Judgement for Status Quo of New Material Industry in Chongqing

This paper identifies the future market demand for new material industry and service from the status quo,industry status of the new materials industry and SWOT analysis.

2.1 Status Quo of the Industry

Chongqing is the largest industrial city in western China, with strong economic and technological radiation capabilities and plays a pivotal role in the development of the western region.After more than 50 years of construction and development after the founding of the People’s Republic of China,it has formed an industrial pattern dominated by automobile and motorcycle, chemical and pharmaceutical, food, building materials,metallurgy, machinery, light power, textile and energy. A comprehensive industrial base with complete and strong supporting capabilities exists in southwest of China.These industrial sectors have laid a good foundation for the development of Chongqing’s new material industry and provided a huge market space. The automobile and motorcycle industry are one of the largest users of the new materials industry,especially as the pillar industry of Chongqing. In addition, there are a number of large military enterprises in Chongqing, which also have greater demand for high-performance new materials.

In 2016, Chongqing new material industry has more than 3,000 material production and processing enterprises. The main industries are metal materials,chemical materials, building materials, functional materials, materials, optoelectronic materials and other industries as well as the development and utilization of mineral resources. The new materials are closely integrated with the basic materials industry. The basic material industry is expanding into the new material industry and the material industry structure is horizontally diffused.At present,the new material industry in Chongqing has reached certain extent and has achieved certain development in the field of metal materials,inorganic non-metallic materials, organic polymer materials and composite materials. There are 4 national new material industry bases of new aluminum alloy, magnesium alloy,functional materials,high performance glass fiber and composite materials (also known as new chemical materials). Four national R&D centers — instrument functional material research and development center,magnesium alloy material research and development center, southwest aluminum group technology center and Chongqing national steel group technology center are gathered in Chongqing.

Table 1 Current Situation of New Material Industry in Chongqing

Figure 1 Chongqing’s new material industry layout

2.2 SWOT Analysis

At present, the development of new material industry in Chongqing is in good shape and many new material fields are leading in the country as well as small and medium-sized new material enterprises are developing rapidly. However, there are still some problems in the development of new material industry in Chongqing. First, the scale of the industry is limited by geographical influence. Second, the independent innovation capability of new material enterprises and the development of globalization are insufficient. Third, small and medium-sized enterprises lack scientific research resources and the combination of production,education and research is insufficient. In order to better and faster develop the new material industry in Chongqing, SWOT analyzes the advantages and disadvantages, opportunities and threats faced by the industry development. Details are shown in Table 2.

Table 2 SWOT Analysis Matrix of New Material Industry

2.3 Market Demand Analysis

The analysis of the market demand of the new material industry is to identify the demand for new material industries and services in the future market through the status quo of new material industry.Industrial status analysis and SWOT analysis also provide a basis for the determination of the development goals of the new material industry. In today’s world, the scientific and technological revolution is developing rapidly, new materials and products are changing with each passing day and industrial upgrading and material replacement are accelerating. The integration of new material technology with nanotechnology, biotechnology and information technology, integration of structural functions and functionalization of functional materials and environmentally friendly characteristics such as low carbon, green and renewable recycling of materials have attracted much attention and improved the product performance of new material industry is imperative. Developed countries attach great importance to the cultivation and development of new material industries, occupy a dominant position in high-tech content and high value-added new material products, exert great pressure on the development of China’s new materials industry and have the pricing power of new material products.Therefore, there is an urgent need to upgrade the independent innovation capability of the new material industry, increase investment in technology research and development,continue to increase the number of patent applications, continuously improve the competitiveness of the “three high”new materials and upgrade the level and scale of the service industry of the new material industry technology modern incubators and intermediaries to meet the needs of customers in the new materials industry.The demand factors of the industrial market in Chongqing in the next 10 years are shown in Table 2-3.

Table 3 Industry Market Demand Elements

Note:recent 0-3 years,3-10 years in the medium term,more than 10 years in the long term

3 Technical System Sorting

3.1 Selection of Key Common Technology

According to the characteristics and influencing factors of the development of new materials industry in Chongqing, the selection criteria of key common technologies in the new material industry are summarized from four dimensions-economic benefit,product,market demand and technical feasibility.

Table 4 Selection Criteria of Key Common Technology for New Material Industry

Category Criterion Produt improvement of product quality, function, and service life reducing consumption and reduce product costs Market Demand meeting market and business needs timely technical maturity Technical Feasibility existing research and development foundation at home and abroad required capital investment status of scientific and technical personnel,level of scientific research personnel

3.2 Collection for a List of Key“Candidate”Technologies

Under the guidance of key common technology selection criteria, the next step is to collect a list of“candidate key common technologies”. Through the use of extensive consultation and structured in-depth interviews with industry, academia and research experts, a list of key candidate technologies for“candidates”is collected.In the in-depth interviews with experts in production, practice and research, it is necessary to design an interview outline in conjunction with Table 3. In the interview outline,the theme of the interview should be designed.Under the theme, the specific question, objective, function,remark and other related items of the interview should be designed.

3.3 Indicator of Delphi Questionnaire

After the experts submitted the technical topics and descriptions of the five sub-fields, a total of 86 technical topics were summarized to make sure whether these technical issues meet the needs of Chongqing’s development in the next 10 years;whether there are cross-cutting technical issues in each sub-field, whether there are major issues that are missing; whether the project description meets the requirements require the expert group of the new material field to check. Therefore, the subject group held the second expert group meeting. After the addition, deletion, merger and revision of the expert group,a total of 50 technical topics in five sub-fields were finally selected to enter the first technical issue of the Delphi survey. The Delphi questionnaire was also discussed at the meeting.Through the discussion of the field expert group, the indicator for the design of the Delphi questionnaire in the new material field of Chongqing in the next 10 years was finalized.

4 Technical Roadmap

This paper draws a comprehensive technical roadmap for the new material industry through the analysis of the questionnaire of the new material industry consumers, the data analysis of expert interviews and the research of multiple rounds of enterprises, as shown in Figure 2. The overall structure of the integrated technology roadmap is divided into five parts, including industry resource status, research and development needs, technical barriers,industry targets and market demand.

Figure 2 Technology Roadmap of New Material Industry in Chongqing

First, the overall resource status of the entire new material industry market is analyzed and summarized from national policies, social culture,economic environment and industry resources.Secondly,the key technology R&D needs in different time nodes are listed separately and then the corresponding technical barriers and the industrial goals and market demands corresponding to such R&D needs are found according to the R&D needs in each time node.There is a one-to-one,one-to-many or many-to-one relationship between R&D needs,technical barriers, industry targets and market demand. Some of the key lines in the picture are the future development technology paths of the industry.