Xu Duoxing, Yan Yunshan, Xiong Kewei

(1.China- Arab States Technology Transfer Center,Yinchuan,Ningxia,750001;2.Ningxia Science and Technology Development Strategy and Information Research Institute,Yinchuan,Ningxia,75001;3.China- Arab E- Commerce Co.,LTD.,Yinchuan,Ningxia,75001)

Abstract: As one of important subsystems of China-Arab states technology transfer comprehensive information service system, online evaluation system for technical price enables both the supply and demand sides of technology transfer to perform simple and rapid online technical price evaluation. The system helps both sides of technology transfer solve the problem of technology transaction pricing in the process of technology transfer, reduces the risks and costs undertook by both sides, improves the success rate of technology transfer,and provides a support for technology transfer transaction.

Keywords:China-Arab States Technology Transfer Center;online evaluation system for technical price,functional design,evaluation approach

The subject of technology transfer is technical achievements,and the ultimate purpose of technology transfer is to make technology deals happen, so that both sides of the technology transfer supply and demand can obtain ideal benefits. The only sure way to engage in technical trade is to set up price through price evaluation. Therefore the price system is recognized as the basis of technology trading and the most critical part in the process of technology transfer. Technical achievement boasts an intangible asset, and its price is difficult to be fixed, which will cause many serious disagreements and disputes between the supply and demand sides of the technology transfer, greatly reducing the success rate of the technology transfer transaction.

The reference value of technical price is needed for the supply and demand sides in the process of technology transfer. The process of technical evaluation is complex in traditional technology evaluation organization, and it takes much time and manpower, causing the high evaluation cost. For the two sides of technology transfer, the risks and cost of the traditional technical appraisal are much higher under the uncertainty of the initial technology transfer transaction.

A set of online price evaluation systems are developed by the China-Arab States Technology Transfer Center to solve the problem of price evaluation, reduce the risks and costs of both sides and finally improve the success rate of technology transfer. It helps both supply and demand sides to realize rapid and simple online price evaluation. The two sides can easily use the system to evaluate the price reference value needed by two sides without any professional training, which provides strong support for technology transfer trade and docking.

I. Functional Design of Online Price Evaluation System

Based on the evaluation mathematic models offered by the China-Arab States Technology Transfer Center, the system adopts scientific and reasonable evaluation principle, solidifies it by the system software, and integrates a large number of industry data and evaluation parameters. Through several simple steps, users only need to fill in some relevant elements in accordance with requirements to gain reference price, which can provide reference price for each network collaborating unit, enterprise,and expert of the China-Arab States Technology Transfer Center so as to solve the judgment of the patent technology achievement value.

According to the evaluation mathematic models provided by the China-Arab States Technology Transfer Center, the system is transferred into an algorithm through technical means.The relevant data of technology transfer are presented in foreground,and the system background will automatically evaluate the price of the technology through the data provided by the user. No personnel is required to participate in the whole process.

Users can evaluate the technical price by logging the China-Arab states technology transfer comprehensive information service system. The users should firstly upload technical information and save onto the system in the member center, after it is approved by the system administrator, they can enter the technology price online evaluation system to choose technical information needed to be evaluated and follow the prompts to type the evaluation data such as basic information of the evaluation object, in the past few years the history of revenue, revenue forecasts for the next few years, historical revenue in past years, revenue forecast in next few years, profit forecast in next few years, income tax forecast,technical strength index,and contribution indicators.The system can evaluate the reference value of transaction price according to the data provided by users. And users can repeatedly revise the data to obtain the most referential evaluation results. The evaluation results can be saved automaticallyand users can login toviewtheevaluation record atanytime.

II. Method Selection of System Evaluation

At present, there are mainly three traditional evaluation methods of technical price including comparison,replacementcost,andincomepresentvalue.

(i)Market Comparison

Market comparison refers to a method to find three or more transaction cases that are identical or similar to the technology under the premise of a fully active and mature market, and evaluate the transaction prices of these cases scientifically to obtain a relatively objective and fair price. The method requires a perfect technology trading market,and the reference materials used for the assessed technology and its technical index parameters can be easily collected. At present, China lacks a perfect trading market system of technological results,reference and necessary data. Therefore, it is not suitable to use market comparison method to evaluate technological prices.

(ii)Replacement Cost

The method refers to a method that evaluates the price of materials, labor, cost, and the opportunity cost of developing the technology, and relevant total cost. Due to the weak correlation and virtuality between the cost and the technology patent right, the cost of the technological achievements cannot fully reflect the value of the technology. Therefore, the replacement cost method is not appropriate for evaluating some technologies.

(iii)Income Present Value

The income present value refers to the sum of future profit discount value created by the marketization of technical achievements, which is also widely used to evaluate the technical prices at present. The main problem of this method is that the future benefits are uncertain, so the evaluation result is not the actual profit,it is expected value of returns.The method does not take into account the characteristics of holding technology for production decision-making. In fact, the market is sound, the technological achievements can bring considerable benefits, and otherwise the benefits will be relatively reduced. Therefore, the income present value will underestimate the value of technological achievements.

In conclusion, the online evaluation system of the China-Arab technology transfer selects the income present value as the main evaluation method,and based on the method,it adopts the expected new income method to determine the future income.According to more than 20 data,the system combines the 30 quantitative indicators jointly formulated by China-Arab States Technology Transfer Center,School of Economics and Management, School of Mathematics and Statistics, School of Arab Language and culture, Ningxia University, and calculates the sum of profit discount value of technical contribution net value through the expected new revenue model,and obtains the ultimate referential value by the comprehensive technical field, region and transfer type conditions.

III. Process and Characteristics of Online Evaluation System for Technical Price

(i) Process of Online Evaluation System for Technical Price

(ii)Characteristics of Online Evaluation System for Technical Price

1.The operational processes are convenient and simple,and users can use it easily without training.

2. The results are obtained immediately. Users only need to type the data according to the system prompts to obtain the evaluation results quickly.

3. The algorithm design gives consideration to marketability, and the system algorithm focuses on market application, which is conducive to improving the reference of results.

4. The technical transaction situation of key technical fields (information communication, medical and health care, modern agriculture) of Arab countries is analyzed to obtain corresponding parameters as references for the evaluation results.

IV. Evaluation Models

(i) Computing Methods of Expected Additional Return

There are three methods to calculate the expected additional income. Different data provided by users adopts different calculation methods to obtain the expected additional income of corresponding years.

a. R=expected revenue generated in marketization process(S)×profit rate(r)

The method is applied to estimated input with and without historical benefits.

b. R= expected output of product in the marketization process(m)×profits of per product(R)

This method is applied in product selling out without historical benefit.

c.R=(P2-- C2)×M2-- (P1-- C1)×M1

Before market application of the technology, the average sales price of the target product is P1; the market sales volume is M1 and the average production cost is C1.After the market application of the technology, the expected average sales price of target product is P2,the expected sales volume of the market is M2,and the average production cost is C2.The method is applied in the additional profit without historical benefits.

(ii)Net Profit of Technical Contribution

After calculating the expected additional benefits of corresponding years,the estimated income tax rate and technical contribution provided by users can be used to determine the net value of technical contribution of corresponding years. The calculation method:V=expected additional benefits (R)× (1-estimated income tax rate)×technical contribution

(iii)Calculation of Value Discount Rate

Most of technology transfers are medium and long term investment, so the latest issued five-year Treasury bond rate is risk-free return rate and the rate of risk compensation of technology can be evaluated through 16 quantitative indicators from legal strength, technical strength, market strength and competitive strength. Finally, risk accumulation method is used to determine the discount rate.

Type Content Indicator Clear ownership yes no uncertain yes applying No Cost in protection the rights and interests after infringement Patent application Legal strength high medium low Legal dispute yes no Applying range in the target domain wide general small Cross-domain application Market strength wide general small Market demand high general low Market feasibility high general low Technological maturity developing verified mass production Substitutability Technical strength Easily replaced Can be replaced Cannot be replaced Imitability Easily imitated Uneasy to be imitated Hard to be imitated Dependence on other technologies strong certain less

Type Content Indicator wide general small Avoidance of technical design Coverage of the target domain Competitive strength easily probably Difficult to avoid The difficulty of judging infringement easy difficult uncertain Occupancy of target market high low general

(iv) Calculation of the Sum of Net Present Value of Technical Profits

Sum the estimated technical contribution net values of the corresponding year,Calculation formula:

N is the profit years of the technology, not exceeding the legal protection years of the technology;

V is the technical contribution net value of corresponding t year;

i is the discount rate, i = risk-free interest rate(five-year Treasury bond rate)+risk return rate.

(v)Calculation of Final Assessment Result

The final evaluation results are obtained by calculating the coefficients corresponding to the conditions in the field of technology,transfer area and type.

P= p ×technical field coefficient ×technology transfer area coefficient ×technology transfer type coefficient

V. Improvement and Outlook of the System

(i)Improvement of the System

1.The rules of weight coefficient and evaluation of all quantitative indicators in the strength evaluation need to be further improved.

2.The data of each technical field classification should be further collected and supplemented.

3.At present,technical transaction data analysis is only conducted in some areas, which needs to be further improved.

4. Data collection of technology transfer transactions in emerging technology fields is relatively inadequate.

(ii)Outlook of the System

At present, the technology value assessment in China is in initial stage,and the evaluation method is very inadequate. From the international perspective,the research on the intellectual property evaluation method with patents as the main content is not mature. How to conduct accurate quantitative analysis of the technology value is an urgent problem to be solved. At present, China lacks of the assessment agencies, assessment procedures,assessment methods and historical data of assessment. The investigation of patent technology market trading is a complicated process in that the influence of the variable factor is too much, and the variable assignment is difficult to determine.With the increase of technology trade,technology evaluation is urgently needed to be solved by the two sides, and also is the difficulty of research. The general model has not formed, multiple verification should be carried out in the practical application process, not only pre-evaluation, but also post-evaluation, so as to make an accurate assessment of the technical value and provide important transaction reference value for both sides of technology transfer.

VI. Acknowledgement

The design and realization of the technical price online evaluation system received support from many people and organization. The especially thanks go to the chief engineer Mr. Niu Guoyuan of China-Arab States Technology Transfer Center for strategic handling and guidance in the design of the system.The author is also appreciated all colleagues of the China - Arab Electronic Commerce Company for their help in system implementation.