叶佳琦 李政海 张靖 鲍雅静 刘翀 徐媛 崔立新

摘 要：为了方便乌恰县流域生态环境的管理与规划，通过生态系统健康评价的PSR模型建立了适合该区域流域生态系统健康评价的指标体系，采用层次分析法确定各项指标值及其权重，并通过灰色预测模型对乌恰县流域生态系统健康进行预测。综合评价结果表明：（1）2008—2015年乌恰县流域生态系统健康状态总体上在不断“恶化”，2014年退化至0.176，达到“病态”状态；（2）根据灰色预测模型，做出该地区未来5 a的流域生态系统健康预测，分别为0.306，0.289，0.273，0.258，0.244，流域生态系统处于不健康状态，并有向病态发展的趋势，生态健康面临的威胁越来越严重，急需对该区域流域生态系统进行保护与管理。该研究可为协调区域发展同生态环境之间的关系问题提供依据。

关键词：生态系统健康；评价；流域；乌恰县

中图分类号：X826 文献标识码：A DOI 编码：10.3969/j.issn.1006-6500.2018.04.017

Ecosystem Health Assessment and Prediction Analysis of Wuqia County Watershed

YE Jiaqi1，2， LI Zhenghai1， ZHANG Jing1， BAOYajing1， LIU Chong1， XU Yuan1， CUI Lixin1

（1. College of Environment and Resources， Dalian University for Nationalities， Dalian， Liaoning 116600， China； 2. College of Ecology and Environment， Inner Mongolia University， Hohhot， Inner Mongolia 010021， China）

Abstract： In order to facilitate the management and planning of the ecological environment in Wuqia County， the index system of ecosystem assessment for the regional watershed was established through the PSR model of ecosystem health assessment， the analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the index value and its weight， and the gray prediction model was used to forecast the ecosystem health of Wuqia County. The comprehensive evaluation results showed that the health status of the ecosystem of Wuqia County from 2008 to 2015 was ‘deteriorating gradually， and it degraded to 0.176 in 2014， reaching the ‘sick state. According to the gray prediction model， the ecological forecast of the basin in near 5 years in the future will decrease to 0.306， 0.289， 0.273， 0.258， 0.244 respectively；the river basin ecosystem will be in an unhealthy state and have a tendency to develop morbidly. The threat will be more and more serious， the regional watershed ecosystem needs for protection and management. The research provided the basis for coordinating the relationship between regional development and ecological environment.

Key words： ecosystem health； assessment； basin； Wuqia County

随着社会的发展，人类对经济和物质财富的需求与日俱增，全球生态危机问题日趋严重，人类健康与可持续发展的环境基础受到威胁[1]。如何有效地处理人口、资源、环境与经济的关系，在资源有限的条件下探索社会、经济和生态和谐发展的问题，已引起人们的广泛关注[2]。一般来说，一个健康的生态系统要满足以下特点：不存在失调症状、具较好的自我修复与自我维持能力[3]、对邻近的生态系统不产生危害、可支持和推动社会经济发展并能保护人类健康[4-5]。

流域生态系统是一个具有完整结构的“社会—经济—自然”复合生态系统[6]。……