龚星宇 常心坦 贾澎涛 张晋安

摘 要： 针对救援路径优选的综合预判，对事故相关因素作预警分析，提出基于事故树的逆向层次分析安全评价模型。通过现场调研、专家经验等方式遴选主要因素，构建出事故树?AHP层次结构模型；利用Saaty等人的1?9标度比较法和“专家系数法”建立基于信心指数法的主要指标成对比较专家判断矩阵；综合利用判断矩阵的几何平均特征、算术平均特征以及特征向量特征，采用“三级滤波法”逐层求解，确定反映判断矩阵特性的指标权值。为了对安全评价模型的应用效果进行验证，将其用于西北某煤矿一号井网络拓扑图的煤矿火灾救援路径综合预判模拟。实验结果表明，模型计算的权值结果与专家经验基本一致，验证了该方法的有效性。

关键词： 安全评价； 事故树； 层次分析法； 煤矿安全； 井下救援； 预警分析； 专家经验

中图分类号： TN820.4?34； TP391 文献标识码： A 文章编号： 1004?373X（2018）08?0151?04

Abstract： In allusion to the comprehensive prejudgment of rescue path optimization and warning analysis of fault?related factors， a safety evaluation model based on inverse hierarchical analysis of fault tree is proposed. The fault tree?AHP hierarchical structure model is constructed by means of selecting main factors with field investigation， expert experience and other methods. By using the 1 to 9?scale comparison method invented by people such as Saaty and expert coefficient method， expert judgment matrix based on confidence index method is built for pairwise comparison of main indicators. The indicator weight values that reflect the features of judgment matrix are determined by comprehensively utilizing the geometric mean characteristic， arithmetic mean characteristic and feature vector characteristic of the judgment matrix and adopting the three?level filtering method for layer?to?layer solutions. To verify the application effect of the safety evaluation model， the model was applied to the comprehensive prejudgment simulation for coal mine fire rescue path in network topology of the first well of a certain coal mine in northwest. The experimental results show that the weight value results by model calculation are basically consistent with the expert experience， and the validity of the method is verified.

Keywords： safety evaluation； fault tree； analytic hierarchy process； coal mine safety； underground rescue； warning analysis； expert experience

煤矿安全是煤炭工业可持续发展的重要问题，是国家安全生产的重中之重。近年来，屡有煤矿井下生产的事故报道，造成人员、生产、经济、社会的多重损失。若能通过对可能造成事故的相关因素进行分析[1]，建立井下科学安全评价模型，指导应急情况下的安全救援最优路径选择，将对煤矿安全生产具有重要意义。

井下最优救援路径的选择受人员素质、身体条件、地质条件、环境条件、工程条件等因素的影响与制约，是一类多层次、多目标的动态系统工程模糊决策问题[2]。……