张雪姣+杜俊慧

摘要：运用LMDI-Attribution方法对山西省2005～2014年间碳排放强度进行了分解及归因分析，并将传统的LMDI模型扩展到产业部门和居民生活两部分，量化五大行业对影响效应变化的贡献率。结果表明，山西省碳排放强度呈下降趋势，2014年万元生产值碳排放强度比2005年减少了2.603 29 t。其中，影响其变化的3个主要因素是经济规模、能源强度和居民能源消费结构；农业、工业、建筑业、交通业、商业5个行业对能源强度效应和产业结构效应均有抑制碳排放强度增长作用；其中，工业是能源结构、能源强度和产业结构3个效应变化的最主要因素，而低耗能的农业、交通业、商业的影响力微弱。总体而言，工业是山西省未来减排最需要关注的部门，优化产业结构和能源结构，大力发展清洁能源是山西省绿色低碳发展的最佳途径。

关键词：碳排放强度；因素分解；归因分析；LMDI-Attribution；山西省

中图分类号：X32 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2017）17-3358-06

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2017.17.043

Analysis of Carbon Emissions Intensity of Shanxi Province based on

LMDI-Attribution Method

ZHANG Xue-jiao， DU Jun-hui

（School of Economics and Management，North University of China，Taiyuan 030051， China）

Abstract： The carbon emissions of Shanxi Province was calculated and analysised from 2005 to 2014 by using LMDI-Attribution method. LMDI method is extended to the industrial and household sectors. Then the contribution rate of five main industries from effect perspective is quantifucated. Results show that there is a downward trend of carbon intensity. Actually compared with 2005 it has decreased 2.603 29 ton per ten thousand yuan of the output. And economy of scale，energy intensity and residents' consumption structure are the main factors effecting the trend. There are five main industry which are agricultural， industrial，the construction industry， transportation and business all having negative effect of growth of carbon intensity on energy intensity effect and industry structure effect， in which industrial is the main fator that cause the change of energy structure， energy intensity and industry structure and there is a little effect of agricultural， transportation and business which consume low energy. Besides， the industy of Shanxi Province should be paid more attention in emission reduction in the future. Optimizing industry structure and energy structure and striving to develop clean energy are the best way in which green and low-carbon development can be put into effect ideally.

Key words： carbon intensity； factor decomposition； attribution analysis； LMDI-Attribution； Shanxi Province

當前，气候问题已经给人类的生存和发展带来了严峻的挑战，这引起人们的广泛关注。为积极应对气候问题，联合国环境委员会针对气候变化制订了《联合国气候变化框架公约》、《京都议定书》。为加强与各国协调合作、积极推动绿色、低碳、可持续发展，中国分别于2014、2015年与美国、欧洲国家达成《中美气候变化联合声明》、《中欧气候变化联合声明》，并携手其他国家一起努力，于2015年底达成《巴黎协定》。此外，在“十三五”期间将减排分解到各个地区。在此大背景下，对山西省碳排放强度的变化进行因素分解以及进一步的归因分析，对山西省顺利完成减排工作具有重要的现实指导意义。……