董京铭+史逸民+任曙霞+史达伟+马晨晨

摘要：利用江苏省连云港市近年的气象资料分析出气候变化趋势，并对应水稻（Orvza sativa L.）气象产量的变化，分析在当今气候变暖的背景下气象因子对水稻产量的影响。结果表明，在水稻全生育期，最高气温、最低气温、平均气温、降水都呈逐年上升趋势，日照时间和温差呈逐年下降的趋势，各气象因子在不同地区也呈现相同的变化趋势，但变化程度不相同。在水稻的6个生育期阶段，气象因子的变化趋势与全生育期基本相同，但在各地区各生育阶段也存在着不同的变化趋势。在水稻全生育期，通过特征分析表明，降水量与水稻产量的相关性最高，由降水在水稻全生育期的变化趋势可以看出，降水量的变化使得水稻产量增加。水稻在移栽返青期的温差与抽穗开花期和灌浆成熟期的最高气温、温差、日照时间对水稻产量的影响最为明显。最高气温在近年呈上升趋势，将有利于水稻产量的增加，而温差与日照时间呈减小趋势，将会对水稻造成减产。

关键词：水稻（Orvza sativa L.）产量；气候因子；气象倾斜率

中图分类号：S511 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2017）17-3245-05

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2017.17.014

Effects of Climate Change on Rice Yield in Lianyungang City

DONG Jing-ming， SHI Yi-ming， REN Shu-xia， SHI Da-wei， MA Chen-chen

（Lianyungang City Meteorological Bureau， Lianyungang 222006， Jiangsu， China）

Abstract： Based on the meteorological data of Lianyungang in recent years， the trend of climate change and the corresponding changes of the rice yield was analyzed， and the effects of meteorological factors on rice（Orvza sativa L.） yield fluctuation were also analyzed on climate background of the climate warming. The results showed that， in the whole growth period of rice， maximum temperature， minimum temperature， average temperature， and precipitation was increasing year by year， sunshine duration and temperature difference showed a declining trend， the meteorological factors also showed the same trend in different regions， but not the same degree of change. During the growth stage of rice， the change trend of meteorological factors was basically the same as that of the whole growth period， but there were different trends in different growth stages of rice in all regions of the world. In the whole growth period of rice， the precipitation and rice yield had the highest correlation， it could be seen that the rainfall change made rice yield increase corresponding to precipitation change trend in the whole growth period. The effects of temperature difference in rice transplanting the green stage and the highest temperature， temperature difference and sunshine duration during rice flowering and filling stage on rice yield was the most obvious. It could be found that the highest temperature was rising in recent years， which would be beneficial to the increase of rice yield， while the decrease of temperature difference and sunshine duration would decrease the yield of rice.

Key words： rice（Orvza sativa L.）yield； meteorological factor； meteorological inclination rate

氣候变化问题与人类的生产和生活密切相关。近百年来，全球气候变化异常，平均温度升高，IPCC预计1990-2100年全球平均表面温度增加1.4～5.8 ℃，CO2、CH4等温室气体的不断排放和温室气体积累浓度的不断提高推动着未来气候的变暖趋势，对农业生产和粮食安全产生了深远的影响。水稻（Orvza sativa L.）作为一种重要的粮食作物，在气候变化背景下，其生长发育期和产量同样受到影响。……