陈 竹，黄凌翔

（天津城建大学经济与管理学院，天津 300384）

不同类型建设用地扩张的时序及空间特征
——加速失效模型在天津市静海区的应用

陈 竹，黄凌翔

（天津城建大学经济与管理学院，天津 300384）

研究目的：分析城市扩展中交通用地、商住用地和工业用地扩张的时序特征、空间关系以及扩张时点的影响因素。研究方法：农地—建设用地转换最优时机理论；加速失效模型。研究结果：（1）不同类型建设用地在扩张过程中具有相互关联的时序和空间特征；（2）静海区交通用地引导了其他建设用地扩张的方向，而不同级别交通用地由于对建设用地和农用地影响的差异，加快或延缓了建设用地扩张的时机；（3）商住和工业用地在200—400 m范围内相互集聚，且商住用地产生的集聚效应强于工业用地。研究结论：细化建设用地类型以分析城市扩张的特征和机制，有助于城市扩展区的布局优化和集约发展。

土地利用；建设用地扩张；时序特征；空间特征；加速失效模型

Abstract:The purpose of this paper is to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics as well as interaction rule of construction land in urban expansion. GIS tools, land conversion timing theory and accelerate failure time survival model are used in the research. The results show that characteristics of construction land expansion vary according to specific land use types. And accelerate failure time survival model could clarify the expansion and impact regulation of traffic land, industrial land, commercial land and residential land. In Jinghai district, traffic land leads the direction of construction land expansion and can accelerate or postpone the land expansion since different classes of traffic land have various degrees of impacts on construction land or agricultural land. Meanwhile, the industrial land presented stronger expansion effects than commercial and residential land in 2006-2014. Industrial, commercial and residential land have agglomeration effect in the extent of 200-400 m, but commercial and residential land can more significantly promote agglomeration than industrial land. In conclusion, we argue that classifying construction land in the research onurban expansion mechanism is necessary to optimize land use allocation in suburbs. Since local government controls the construction land expansion decisions, newly-added construction land are occupied mostly by industrial land to improve local economic performance. With the purposes of avoiding inefficient land use and single land development mode in suburban district, the incentive mechanism of local government needs to be improved.

Key words:land use; construction land expansion; temporal characteristics; spatial characteristics; accelerate failure time survival model

1 引言

经过30余年的高速发展，中国城镇化率已经达到57.35%①http://news.163.com/17/0120/10/CB7G7D9A00018AOQ.html。。在近年来经济发展速度放缓和经济新常态背景下，城镇化由于其优化调整城乡资源结构、驱动经济内生增长等功能，会受到更多的重视。同时，中国已表现出了土地城镇化快于人口城镇化的特征[1-2]，在农地快速转换为建设用地的过程中，不合理的配置方式往往造成了土地利用效率的损失，建设用地数量和空间结构的控制和协调开始成为社会关注的重要问题。……