武汉区级和地块级城镇非建设用地转用驱动机制研究

2017-10-12胡伟艳魏安奇

中国土地科学 2017年7期

关键词：耕地模型建设

胡伟艳，魏安奇，刘恬

（华中农业大学公共管理学院，湖北武汉 430070）

武汉区级和地块级城镇非建设用地转用驱动机制研究

胡伟艳，魏安奇，刘恬

（华中农业大学公共管理学院，湖北武汉 430070）

研究目的：探究武汉区级和地块级尺度影响因素对城镇非建设用地转用的驱动机制，为城镇土地空间布局优化和城镇化健康发展提供参考。研究方法：多层logit模型分析。研究结果：（1）武汉城镇非建设用地转用的整体差异中有44.98%由行政区之间的差异造成，55.02%由地块间的差异造成；（2）地块尺度上，距离市中心、道路和城镇建设用地越近的地块，非建设用地转用的可能性越大；而距离耕地、湖泊、林地越近的地块，非建设用地转用的可能性越小；（3）区级尺度上，城镇化综合水平和地方财政收入越高的地区，非建设用地转用的可能性越大；农业产值和耕地禀赋越高的地区，非建设用地转用的可能性越小；（4）地块特征对城镇非建设用地转用的作用在不同行政区间存在显著差异，行政区特征通过地块特征对非建设用地转用的间接作用呈现多种方式。研究结论：为协调土地开发与保护的矛盾，需强化土地利用的正外部性，在基础设施较完善的区位紧凑开发新增建设用地，集中连片划定耕地红线和生态用地，从而提高土地管理的有效性。

土地管理；城镇非建设用地转用；驱动机制；多层logit模型

Abstract:The purpose of this paper is to explore multi-scale driving mechanisms of urban non-construction land conversion. The multi-level logit model is employed. The results show that: 1） 44.98% of the difference in the rate of urban non-construction land conversion is caused by the differences between the administrative regions, and 55.02%is caused by the differences among the plots; 2） on the scale of plot, the probability of urban non-construction land conversion is higher for the plots with the greater distances to the urban center, the nearest road, and the nearest urban built-up area, while the probability of urban non-construction land conversion is lower for the plots with the nearer distances to the nearest farmland, lake and forest. 3） on the scale of district, the probability of urban non-construction land conversion is higher in districts with higher comprehensive level of urbanization and local fiscal revenue, while the probability of urban non-construction land conversion is lower in districts with higher agricultural gross output valueand farmland endowment. 4) more importantly, there are significant differences among districts regarding the impacts that plot characteristics have on urban non-construction land conversion, and the districts characteristics display diverse forms through the indirect impacts that plot characteristics have on urban non-construction land conversion. We consider that hierarchical linear model might be more helpful to explore mechanisms and pathways of land-based urbanization.And in order to alleviate the contradiction between land development and protection, we should strengthen the positive externalities of land use, develop the new construction land intensively near the well built-up areas, set up the red-lines of the farmland and ecological land, and improve the effectiveness of land management.

Key words:land management; urban non-construction land conversion; driving mechanism; multi-level logit model