史津梅 朱玉军 巨克英 戴升

摘要 利用青海省气象局的实时观测数据、决策气象服务产品以及全国灾情直报系统中的灾情数据，分析2016年3月强降水过程的特征及气象服务情况。结果表明，此次过程全省平均降水量创历史同期最高极值，农业区湟源、互助、西宁、湟中、乐都、平安6个地区出现第一场透雨，透雨出现时间较常年提前30～40 d。对此次过程气候预测有所偏差，从短期角度来说对气温的降幅预报仍把握不到位；分析此次强降水过程的气象服务发现，灾害性天气防灾减灾气象服务中预报准确率是核心；上下联动、合作联防是做好预报服务的重要举措；防灾减灾工作规范、有序、运转协调，提高工作效能，能一定程度上弥补预报预测的不足；要实现“社会参与”的气象服务联动机制，赢得社会各界和广大公众对气象部门气象服务工作的理解和支持。

关键词 强降水；预报预测评估；决策气象服务

中图分类号 S161.6 文献标识码 A 文章编号 0517-6611（2017）07-0168-02

Discussion on the Decision-making Meteorological Service of Qinghai Precipitation Weather Process in March 2016

SHI Jin-mei， ZHU Yu-jun， JU Ke-ying et al

（Qinghai Meteorological Observatory， Xining， Qinghai 810001）

Abstract Based on the real-time observation data of Qinghai Meteorological Bureau， decision-making meteorological service product and disaster data in national disaster reporting system， characteristics of heavy rainfall processes and meteorological services in Mar. 2016 were analyzed. The results showed that average precipitation of the whole province reached most extremes at the same period during past years， Huangyuan， Huzhu， Xining， Huangzhong， Ledu， Pingan occurred the first soaking rain， which was earlier than the normal 30-40 d. From the perspective of short-term， temperature drop forecast was still not accurate； based on the meteorological service of the heavy precipitation process， in the meteorological service of disaster prevention and reduction， the accuracy of prediction was the core； cooperation was an important measure in forecast service； standardized， orderly and coordinated disaster prevention and reduction work could improve work efficiency， to a certain extent， make up for the lack of forecast； to achieve the "social participation" meteorological services linkage mechanism， we should win the community and the general publics understand and support to meteorological services.

Key words Heavy precipitation；Prediction and evaluation；Decision-making meteorological service

決策氣象服务是气象服务学中的一个分支[1]，服务对象是各级政府部门，是为决策部门组织防灾减灾、制定经济发展规划、指挥生产、合理开发利用资源以及重大社会活动保障等方面进行科学决策所提供的气象信息服务。国内有很多专家在如何做好决策气象服务工作方面进行了大量的相关研究[2-8]。虽然，近几年青海省气象部门在决策气象服务工作方面也取得了长足的进步和发展，但在出现的异常恶劣天气与突发灾害面前、对决策气象服务“精准、及时、高效”的要求越来越高的情况下，仍显示出了它的薄弱性。……