黄丹阳+曹慧+徐斐+袁敏+宇盛好+彭少杰

摘要：本研究首先考察了温度（10、15、20、25、30、34、37和43 ℃）对米饭中蜡样芽孢杆菌生长的影响，并采用SGompertz和SLogistic模型对不同温度下蜡样芽孢杆菌的生长数据进行拟合；在此基础上，以拟合度（R2）、准确因子（Af）和偏差因子（Bf）为指标，比较并建立了米饭中蜡样芽孢杆菌的二级生长模型。结果表明，SGompertz模型能更好的拟合米饭中蜡样芽孢杆菌在不同温度下的生长数据，因此选择其作为蜡样芽孢杆菌在米饭中的一级生长模型。采用平方根模型建立的米饭中蜡样芽孢杆菌二级生长模型的Af值分别为1.12和1.14，Bf值分别为0.99和1.03，拟合度分别为0.9537和0.8503；采用二次多项式模型建立的二级生长模型的Af值分别为1.24和1.11，Bf值分别为0.92和0.92，拟合度分别为0.9550和0.9462，可见二次多项式模型能够较准确地预测米饭中蜡样芽孢杆菌的生长状况，模型具有可靠性。

关键词：蜡样芽胞杆菌；米饭；一级生长模型；二级生长模型

Study on predictive models for the growth of Bacillus cereus in cooked rice

HUANG Dan-yang1， CAO Hui1， XU Fei1*， YUAN Min1， YU Sheng-hao2， PENG Shao-jie2*

（1.School of Medical Instrument and Food Engineering， University of Shanghai for Science and Technology， Shanghai 200093， China；2.Shanghai Center for Adverse Drug and Medical Device Reaction Monitoring Shanghai 200233， China）

Abstract： The paper is designed to study the effects of temperature （10， 15， 20， 25， 30， 34， 37 and 43 ℃） on the growth of Bacillus cereus in rice.And then the SGompertz and SLogistic models were selected as the primary growth models to fit the growth curve of Bacillus cereus in cooked rice with variable storage temperatures.Using the fitness （R2）， accuracy factor （Af） and deviation factor （Bf） as evaluation index， quadratic polynomial model and square root model were selected further to fit the secondary growth models of Bacillus cereus in cooked rice.The results showed that the SGompertz model could well describe the growth of Bacillus cereus at different temperature， and therefore it was chosen as the primary growth model of Bacillus cereus in rice.For the developed square root model， Af was 1.12 and 1.24， Bf was 0.99 and 1.03， R2 values were 0.9537 and 0.8503； respectively. For the developed quadratic polynomial model， Af was 1.24 and 1.11， Bf was 0.92 and 0.92， R2 values were 0.9550 and 0.9462； respectively. The results show that the quadratic polynomial model can well predict the growth of Bacillus cereus in rice.

Keywords：Bacillus cereus； cooked rice； primary growth model； secondary growth model

中圖分类号：文献标志码：文章编号：

蜡样芽孢杆菌（Bacillus cereus）在自然界中普遍存在，其最适生长温度为25℃～37℃，最适生长pH值范围为4.3～9.3[1]。蜡样芽孢杆菌可引起呕吐型和腹泻型食物中毒。呕吐型食物中毒主要由低分子量的呕吐毒素（Cereulide）引起[2]，该毒素常在米饭类食品中被检出，耐热，耐蛋白酶水解酶，对酸碱稳定，高温121℃处理30 min 仍不失活[3-4]。腹泻型食物中毒主要由腹泻毒素引起，能导致腹泻型胃肠炎。蜡样芽孢杆菌主要以孢子状态广泛存在于自然界和食品中，尤其是谷物等淀粉含量高的食品[5]。吕荣[6]统计分析了近10年来（1993～2002年）国内报道的47起蜡样芽孢杆菌食物中毒事件，发现被污染的食品主要为剩米饭（44.6%）和开水泡饭（17.0%）。……