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人工智能驱动未来

2017-03-06GraysonBrulte

新东方英语·中学版 2017年3期
关键词:车库房屋驱动

Grayson+Brulte

Today, we are just beginning to scratch the surface1) of what is possible with artificial intelligence (A.I.) and how individuals will interact with its various forms. Every single aspect of our society—from cars to houses to products to services—will be reimagined and redesigned to incorporate A.I.

A child born in the year 2030 will not comprehend why his or her parents once had to manually2) turn on the lights in the living room. In the future, the smart home will seamlessly3) know the needs, wants and habits of the individuals who live in the home prior to them taking an action.

Before we arrive at this future, it is helpful to take a step back and reimagine how we design cars, houses, products and services. We are just beginning to see glimpses of this future with the Amazon Echo and Google Home smart voice assistants.

Amazon, Apple, Google and to some extent Microsoft understand that the future of computing is voice input, powered by A.I. Moving towards a future where voice will become the primary input command will balance the playing field4) and allow those who have medical conditions such as early stage Alzheimer's5) to continue to communicate and interact with society.

Children of the future will grow up fully immersed6) in a world powered by A.I. The design of this child's world will be completely different from our world today, as the child will learn how to communicate with a machine by the time they're 2 years old.

As a child's vocabulary grows into full sentences, their personal A.I. engine will grow up with them. These children will grow up in a fully immersed world of A.I. where they will interact with everything using their voice.

Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, recently penned a blog post in which he described a similar future with A.I.: "In the next 10 years, we will shift to a world that is A.I.-first, a world where computing becomes universally available—be it at home, at work, in the car or on the go—and interacting with all of these surfaces becomes much more natural and intuitive7), and above all, more intelligent."

While the interaction becomes more natural, the way we design for a future which integrates A.I. seamlessly into daily life will pose a challenge. But it's a challenge worth tackling: The A.I. industry is projected to grow to $70 billion by 2020 from just $8.2 billion in 2013 according to Bank of America.

The popularity of the garage in the United States started around 1925 when houses with garages started to sell faster than homes without a garage. By 1939, 80 percent of all new houses built had a garage. This growth was partly fueled by the design of the automatic rolling garage door. Today, the necessity to design a garage for the smart home of the future is lessened as a majority of individuals will subscribe to an autonomous vehicle brand instead of owning a vehicle.

When you subscribe to a vehicle, 95 percent of the time you will not need to garage the vehicle when it is not in use. Instead of pulling up to your house and going through the routine of opening and closing the garage doors, the autonomous vehicle will drop you off at your front door. Upon entry, the house will be set the way you prefer with lighting, temperature and music depending on the time of day you arrive.

The A.I. that powers your smart home will understand the quirks8) that make you uniquely you and will ensure that the house operates in an efficient manner. The home will always be listening and waiting for voice commands to complete tasks.

When the home becomes a smart home and society is inherently9) intertwined10) with A.I., our habits and traits will change. Individuals will become smarter and more efficient as everything they own or subscribe to will be connected to an A.I. engine. This gigantic11) shift in society will have a dramatic impact on how cars, houses, products and services are designed.

Will you be ready for the change?

人工智能未來可能会达到什么样的高度?个人又将如何与各种形式的人工智能进行互动?对于这些,我们如今才刚刚开始触及其表面。从汽车到房屋、到产品、到服务,我们社会的每一个方面都将被重新想象和重新设计,以融入人工智能。

2030年出生的孩子将不会理解自己的父母以前为什么必须手动打开起居室的灯。在未来,智能房屋将会在居住其中的人们采取任何行动之前,就毫不费力地了解其需求、想法和习惯。

在我们走进这样的未来之前,退后一步重新想象一下我们要如何设计汽车、房屋、产品和服务,这样做会很有好处。借由亚马逊智能音箱Echo和谷歌家居智能语音助手,我们才刚刚开始看见这种未来的隐隐微光。

亚马逊、苹果和谷歌(从某种程度上来说,还有微软)都相信计算机的未来是这样的:靠人工智能驱动的语音输入。在未来,语音将会成为主要的命令输入方式,这样的发展方向将会让竞争环境变得公平,让身患疾病(如早期痴呆症)的人能继续与社会进行沟通和互动。

未来的孩子将会完全沉浸在一个由人工智能驱动的世界里长大。他们成长的这个世界的设计将全然不同于我们今日所处的世界,因为未来世界中的孩子们到2岁时就将学习如何和机器交流。

随着一个孩子的词汇量增长到可以说出完整的句子,他们个人的人工智能引擎也会跟着他们一同发展。这些孩子将会在一个完全沉浸在人工智能中的世界里长大,他们在这里将通过语音来同世界上的一切打交道。

谷歌首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊最近(编注:英文原文发表于2016年10月)写了一篇博文,文中描述了一个类似的人工智能的未来:“在接下来的10年里,我们会转变到一个以人工智能为主导的世界。在这个世界里,计算机运作会无处不在,不论是在家、在工作、在车里或是在忙着做什么事。与所有这些计算机运用界面打交道将会变得更为自然、更本能,并且最重要的是,更为智能。”

虽然与人工智能的互动会变得更加自然,但如何设计这样一个将人工智能无缝融入日常生活的未来却是一大挑战。不过这一挑战值得我们应对:据美国银行预测,人工智能行业产值到2020年时将会从2013年的82亿美元增长到700亿美元。

车库在美国的流行始于1925年左右,当时带车库的房子比没有车库的房子更抢手。到1939年,80%的新建住宅都配有车库。这一增长部分是由于车库自动卷门设计的推动。如今,为未来的智能房屋设计车库的必要性已经减弱了,因为大多数人将会订购自动驾驶汽车,而不是购买机动车。

在订购了自动驾驶汽车之后,不用车的时候,有95%的时间你都不需要把它开进车库里。你不再需要把车停在房前,然后例行来上一遍开车库门关车库门;相反,自动驾驶车辆将让你在你家前门下车。等你一进门,房屋将会根据你到家的时间设定好你喜欢的亮度、温度以及音乐。

驱动你智能房屋的人工智能将了解你那些独有的小怪癖,并会确保房屋以高效的方式运行。你的房屋将会永远聆听并等待你的语音指令来完成任务。

当房屋变成智能房屋,当人工智能完全融入社会,我们的习惯和特征也会发生改变。由于我们拥有和订购的所有东西都会与一个人工智能引擎相连,人会变得更聪明也更高效。这一翻天覆地的社会变化将会对汽车、房屋、产品和服务的设计产生巨大影响。

面对这样的变化,你准备好了吗?

1. scratch the surface: 触及表面,浅尝辄止;未做深入研究

2. manually [?m?nju?li] adv. 手动地

3. seamlessly [?si?ml?sli] adv. 毫不费力地;无缝地

4. playing field: 公平竞争的环境

5. Alzheimer's: 阿尔茨海默病,患者思维能力和记忆力逐渐衰退。

6. immerse [??m??s] vt. 使沉浸

7. intuitive [?n?tju??t?v] adj. 本能的;凭直觉的

8. quirk [kw??k] n. 怪癖

9. inherently [?n?h??r?ntli] adv. 内在地

10. intertwine [??nt??twa?n] vt. 使密切关联

11. gigantic [d?a??ɡ?nt?k] adj. 巨大无比的

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