崔良中　郭福亮　梁英杰

(海军工程大学电子工程学院计算机工程系　武汉　430033)



基于不确定完成时间的项目进度控制模型及其应用*

崔良中郭福亮梁英杰

(海军工程大学电子工程学院计算机工程系武汉430033)

摘要对电子装备研发过程中的进度控制问题进行了研究。通过电子装备研发过程的分析,指出各步骤完成时间的不确定性是其主要特征,针对传统项目进度控制方法存在的假设前提过于理想化,在实际应用中偏差较大的问题,提出了基于不确定完成时间的解决方案,以关键路径算法为基础,将研发过程中某一任务的完成时间设置为一个时间范围内的某一点,建立数学模型,通过最小化相同状态下当前方案与最优解方案之间的差异,达到调整项目计划安排的目的。实验证明,该方案更贴近于电子装备项目研发的实际,可以有效地控制项目进度并优化。

关键词电子装备研发; 关键路径算法; 不确定完成时间; 项目进度控制

Introduction and Application of Project Schedule Control Model Based on Uncertain Completion Time

CUI LiangzhongGUO FuliangLIANG Yingjie

(Department of Computer Engineering, Institution of Electronic Engineering, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan430033)

AbstractThe process control problem in the development provess of electronic equipment is analyzed. The analysis of electronic equipment development process proves that the uncertainty on the completion time of each step is the main feature. For that the assumption of the traditional project schedule control methods realistic and there is large deviation in practical application, a solution based on uncertain completion time is proposed. Based on critical path algorithm, the completion time of task is set as a point within a time scope, and a mathematical model is established to the project plan by minimizing the difference between the scheme and optical solution under the same status. The experiment proves that the proposed solution is more close to the actual project of research and development of electronic equipment, and can effectively control and optimize the project schedule.

Key Wordselectronic equipment research and development, critical path algorithm, uncertain completion time, project schedule control

Class NumberO141.4

1引言

电子装备项目具有创新性,这也导致了项目完成时间与质量的不可预测性,为了尽可能地提高项目研发的成功率,同时保证项目能够取得应有的效益,对于整个研发过程进行科学合理的进度控制必不可少[1]。在项目管理的各个组成部分中,进度控制管理直接影响到项目成本、项目质量等方面。合理的进度控制可以有效地对项目的风险进行控制和管理,同时,通过缩短研发时间,可以使电子装备更早地投入应用,更好地为生产者创造利益。……