Kirk Goldsberry

ITS TIME TO PROPERLY MEASURE THE VALUE OF NBA COACHES.

是时候合理评估NBA教练的价值了。

NBA teams are increasingly addicted to 3-point shooting. Thats been common knowledge for a while. The feeding of this addiction has changed the way entire offenses are run. Out with the ball-stoppers， in with the ball-movers.

NBA球队越来越沉迷于三分，这成为普遍认识已经有一段时间了。对于这种嗜好的满足，导致整个进攻发生了改变。防守者越来越少，转移球的人越来越多。

The sneaky thing about NBA 3s is that they demand cooperation. While only 52 percent of the leagues 2-point field goals involve an assist， 84 percent of 3s involve an assist. As the league increases its appetite for long-range shooting， it must also ramp up its passing. Moving the ball has never been more important， and systems that keep the ball in motion effectively have never been more successful.

NBA的三分有一个麻烦，就是需要合作。尽管联盟里只有52%的两分球涉及到了助攻，但是涉及到助攻的三分球却有84%。随着联盟越来越喜欢远距离投篮，传球也相应变得越来越多。转移球从来没有如此重要过，而能让球处于有效移动中的体系也从来没像今天这样如此成功。

The Denver Nuggets fired Brian Shaw. There is no shortage of indicators that point to Denvers failures； the Nuggets rank 24th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency — however， given the trends highlighted above， that they also rank last in 3-point efficiency seems particularly salient.

丹佛掘金炒掉布莱恩·肖，丹佛走向失败的迹象并不少见：进攻效率排第24，防守效率第25。不过，鉴于上面提到的趋势，他们在三分效率中排名倒数第一显得尤其扎眼。

Overall， the Nuggets convert a measly 31.3 percent of their 3s. How bad is that？ Well， out of 103 qualifying players in ESPNs 3-point efficiency standings， only five players shoot below that mark. So， thats pretty bad.

从总体上看，掘金的三分命中率只有31.3%。这个数据有多差？在ESPN符合三分效率榜标准的103名球员中，只有5名球员低于这一数据。所以，这真的很糟。

Nobody knows more about coaching trends than Warren LeGarie， an agent who represents seven NBA head coaches and many more potential coaches. I asked LeGarie this week about the interactions between the obvious stylistic evolution of NBA offense and the less obvious shifts in the coaching market.

没有人比沃伦·拉加利更了解执教趋势，他是七名NBA主教练的经纪人，他的客户中还有更多可能会在未来当教练的人。本周，我就NBA进攻风格的明显转变与教练市场的不明显转变之间的互动询问了拉加利。

“These last couple of seasons， the game and style of play has really changed for the better， exemplified by the Spurs domination of Miami in last years NBA Finals； the winners have been the fans and the coaches who play that way，” LeGarie says. “The star-ball era， which has dominated the game and major portions of the salary cap for much of the last 10 years， finally seems to be going by way of the dinosaur.”

“过去几个赛季里，比赛和战术风格真的在朝更好的方向发展，典型就是马刺去年总决赛对热火的统治级表现；赢家是球迷和选择这种打法的教练。”拉加利说，“明星球的时代，在过去10年大多数时候统治比赛、占据薪金空间大头的球风，似乎终于像恐龙一样消失了。”

Mike Budenholzer and Shaw landed first-time coaching gigs in the summer of 2013. Before landing in Atlanta， Budenholzer wrote a dissertation on hardwood egalitarianism at Popovich University； before his time in Denver，Shaw diligently studied Zen and the Art of Superstar Maintenance at Triangle Tech.

迈克·布登霍泽和肖在2013年夏天都获得了第一份教练工作。加入老鹰前，布登霍泽专门研究过波波维奇平等主义篮球；成为掘金主教练前，肖勤奋地学习过禅道，以及三角进攻包容超级巨星的艺术。

While both apprenticed under legendary masters， their paths have been extremely divergent since taking their helms： Shaw is out of a job， while Budenholzers Hawks own the NBAs best record. Maybe its unfair to look for symbolism here， but in the pace-and-space era， coaches are more important than ever.

尽管两人都是大师的弟子，但成为主教练后，两人走的路却大相径庭：肖丢了工作，而布登霍泽的老鹰拥有联盟最佳战绩。也许在这里寻找代表点并不公平，但在节奏和空间的时代，教练的作用变得更为重要。

Pop quiz， hotshot①： Whos the best shooter in the NBA？

各位高手，脑筋急转弯：谁是NBA最好的投手？

A： The open shooter.

答案：有空位的投手。

Perimeter success in todays NBA is as much a reflection of shot quality as it is shooter quality. Just ask Danny Green， whose career has gone from the waiver wire to spot-up legend largely by switching systems. But， if we believe in this “Danny Green effect，” we must also allow for an opposite phenomenon， where players seemingly devolve after changing systems. Shaws tenure provides us with a few examples.

如今NBA在外线的成功，既是投篮质量的反映，也是投手质量的反映。问问丹尼·格林就知道了，仅仅因为更换了体系，他就从队见队裁的废柴变成了定点投篮传奇。可如果我们相信“丹尼·格林效应”，我们就必须允许相对现象的存在，也就是球员在更换体系后出现退化。我们可以从肖的掘金时期找出一些例子

Consider the plight of Wilson Chandler， who has played in Denver for years. In George Karls last year in Denver （2012-13）， he shot 41 percent from beyond the arc. This year， that figure is way down to 33 percent. Maybe Chandler simply got worse at shooting — or maybe his looks got worse under Shaw.

想一想威尔森·钱德勒的困境，他在掘金已经打了很多年。乔治·卡尔在丹佛的最后一年（2012-13），钱德勒的三分命中率是41%。今年，这个数据掉到了33%。

When looking at teams 3-point efficiencies， youll notice that Budenholzers Hawks are near the top of the list， trailing only the Splash Brothers under Steve Kerr. Does this mean Atlanta has the best shooters in the league？ Well， having Kyle Korver certainly doesnt hurt， but he typically doesnt create his own shots. They also feature players like DeMarre Carroll， who shot just 29 percent on 3-pointers two years ago — hes up to 40 percent this year， essentially exhibiting the inverse effect as Chandler.

要是看球队的三分效率，你会注意到布登霍泽的老鹰几乎接近榜首，仅次于斯蒂夫·科尔手下的水花兄弟。但这是否等于老鹰拥有联盟最好的射手？好吧，拥有凯尔·科沃尔当然不会有害，但科沃尔基本上不会自己创造投篮机会。老鹰队里还有德玛尔·卡罗尔，两年前他的三分命中率还只有29%——今年这个数字是40%，正好是钱德勒效应的对立面。

And while spot-up threats like Korver have experienced heightened value， what about the coaches who are able to architect a system that allows these guys to flourish？ After all， 95 percent of Korvers 3s this year involve an assist， and though were good at teasing out how many of those assists belong to Jeff Teague， were less inclined to investigate how many of them belong to Budenholzer. Perhaps just as baseball accounts for “park effects②，” basketball should account for “coach effects.”

像科沃尔一样的定点投篮专家的价值受到人们关注时，那些构建了这些体系、让球员得以闪光的教练呢？总之，科沃尔今年95%的三分都来自助攻，尽管我们愿意研究究竟有多少助攻来自杰夫·蒂格，我们却很少去研究到底有多少助攻来自布登霍泽。也许就像棒球将其称为“球场效应”一样，篮球应该将其归为“教练效应”。

In 2015， the NBAs best coaches might be the most undervalued human resources in the league. Should Jeremy Lin or Eric Gordon really earn more money than Gregg Popovich？ Should Kerr， Budenholzer， and Dave Joerger combine to earn less than Omer Asik？ Maybe weve traditionally overvalued the impact of players relative to coaches， or maybe the way the game is played now has just heightened the import of tacticians. Either way， the current valuations seem out of whack.

2015年，NBA的最佳教练们可能是联盟最被忽视的资源。林书豪或埃里克·戈登真的应该比格雷格·波波维奇挣的还多？科尔、布登霍泽和戴夫·乔格尔的工资加起来应该比欧米尔·阿西克低？也许从传统上，我们过高的估计了球员相对于教练的价值，也许现在的比赛风格更强调战术家的重要性。无论怎么样，现在的评价体系不对。

As Kerr and Budenholzer have most recently demonstrated， sometimes changing the coach can be as effective， or more so， as adding a superstar player or two. But coaching prospects come with tremendous amounts of uncertainty. Shaw was one of the most talked-about candidates in the league for years， while many questioned Kerrs lack of coaching experience. Kerr has obviously proved the doubters wrong， and the Shaw hype looks unwarranted.

就像科尔和布登霍泽最近证明的那样，有时候更换教练等于甚至大于增加一个或者两个超级明星。不过执教潜力却有着极大的不确定性。肖在很多年里都是联盟中被讨论得最多的教练候选人，同时有很多人质疑科尔缺乏执教经验。科尔显然证明质疑者错了，而支持肖的声音显得毫无根据。

Theres no arguing that Phil Jackson and Popovich， like Jobs and Gates in the computing industry， loom large over the future of the NBA. Both guys deserve loads of credit for not only winning， but also shaping the way we think about the league. Still， its hard to look at the diverging fates of the Nuggets and Knicks versus the Spurs， Hawks， and Warriors and not hypothesize that Popovichs legacy will have a longer tail， at least stylistically.

毫无疑问，就像计算机界的乔布斯和盖茨一样，菲尔·杰克逊和波波维奇对NBA的未来有着巨大的影响。两个人都配得上大量的赞誉，他们不仅是赢家，还确定了我们看待联盟的方法。然而，看到掘金、尼克斯和马刺、老鹰、勇士的命运对比时，我们很难不去想波波维奇会拥有更长久的影响，至少从风格上来说如此。

Jackson can always say， “count the rings，” while Pop can always say， “count the proteges.”

杰克逊永远可以说“数数戒指”，而波波维奇永远可以说“数数徒弟”。

Shaw failed to get his players to coalesce into anything more than a collection of random NBA parts. Certainly， this failure is not unique to him， but that lack of coalescence is nonetheless evident not just in the wins and losses， but also in his teams low defensive efficiency and terrible perimeter shooting rates.

肖没能让自己的球员变成比一盘散沙更强的组合，当然，这种失败并非只出现在他一人身上。但缺少融合不仅表现在赢球和输球上，还表现在球队低下的防守效率和糟糕的外线投篮上。

Thirty-five years after the league adopted the 3-point line， Bryants generation is headed for the exit， while the league is full of upstart millennials who are not only keenly aware of the fact that 24-foot shots are worth 50 percent more than 22-foot shots， but also ready and willing to exploit that margin， no matter what it takes. Well， it takes ball movement， and the leagues best coaches are willing and able to implement tactics that help provide just that， while its struggling coaches are either too stubborn or too out of touch to achieve that perimeter nirvana. To hear LeGarie tell it， the “challenge will be to find the ball-movers instead of the ball-stoppers.” Its unclear if hes talking about players or coaches. It is probably both.

联盟引入三分线的35年后，科比这一代人正在隐退。联盟中满是新生代，他们不仅清楚地知道24英尺的投篮比22英尺的投篮得分多50%，而且已经做好准备、并且愿意利用这样的优势，不论需要付出什么都行。好吧，这需要将球转移起来，需要联盟最好的教练愿意且有能力制定出创造类似机会的战术。而表现挣扎的教练要么太固执，要么没有能力实现外线的涅槃。听拉加利怎么说的，“挑战在于寻找转移球的人，而不是防守者。”我们不清楚他说的是球员还是教练，很可能两者都是。

①hotshot是美国俚语，常用的意思是自负、好卖弄的人，或者高手、能人。

②park effect是棒球的术语。棒球规则仅仅规定了内野的规格，却没有规定外野的形制，所以同样的球在不同球场可能导致不同的结果。