杜兴端+李晓+林正雨

摘要:四川省农村居民收入与消费之间存在稳定的均衡关系,人均纯收入对人均消费支出具有正向影响,人均消费支出的长期收入弹性为0.85,短期收入弹性为0.87｡纯收入增长是促进人均消费增长的Granger原因｡扩大农村消费,关键在于提高农村居民收入｡要建立农村居民增收的长效机制,提高农村居民收入水平,稳定收入预期,提升农村居民消费能力｡

关键词:农村消费;绝对收入假说;协整分析;收入弹性

中文分类号:F328文献标识码:A文章编号:0439-8114(2014)11-2698-05

The Relationship between Income and Consumption of Countryside Inhabitants in Sichuan Province Based on Absolute Income Hypothesis

DU Xing-duan,LI Xiao,LIN Zheng-yu

(Agricultural Information and Rural Economy Institute, Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Science, Chengdu 610066, China)

Abstract: There is a stable balanced relationship between income and consumption of countryside inhabitants in Sichuan province. The per capita net income has a positive influence on the per capita consumption expenditure. Long-term and short-term and income elasticity of per capita consumption expenditure is 0.85 and is 0.87. Net income growth is a Granger cause of per capita consumption growth. The key to expand countryside inhabitants is to raise income of countryside inhabitants, to build long-standing mechanism of raising their income to raise the income level of average inhabitants, to stabilize income expectations and promote consumption capability of countryside inhabitants.

Key words:countryside inhabitants consumption capability;absolute income hypothesis;co-integration analysis;income elasticity

基金项目:国家社科基金项目(11CSH014);四川省软科学项目(2012ZR0072);四川省财政基因工程项目(2012QNJJ-005)

最终消费率的降低是阻碍我国经济持续增长的重要因素之一[1]｡十八大报告指出,要“牢牢把握扩大内需这一战略基点,加快建立扩大消费需求的长效机制,释放居民消费潜力,保持投资合理增长,扩大国内市场规模”｡释放内需潜力,尤其是消费需求潜力,是未来5~10年我国转型发展的突出优势和主要动力,并将决定未来10年的增长前景｡在当前世界经济深度转型期,预计我国未来几年对欧美市场出口呈现萎缩趋势,扩大内需成为稳增长､调结构的立足点和改革重点[2]｡当前,我国必须坚决实施内需主导战略,而内需主导的核心是提高居民收入水平[3]｡四川省在转变经济发展方式过程中,必须深入贯彻实施扩大内需战略,认真落实中央扩大消费政策,培育一批拉动力强的消费增长点｡2012年,四川省农村居民人均消……