汪恩国　刘伟明

摘 要：为了揭示双季稻-单双并存-单季稻耕作制度渐进变化害虫种群数量变动规律，于1990—2012年通过4个监测点应用灯诱和赶蛾方法对水稻害虫种群结构及构成数量进行系统跟踪监测研究，结果表明水稻主要害虫随双季稻向单季稻制度渐进变化其害虫种群构成从9种演变成8种；其种群数量变动呈周期性波型曲线变化，波动周期W型9～10年或V型4～5年，不同耕作制度波动呈“三角”变化并以单双并存制度为趋高运行状态；经数值化函数模拟，创建种群数量变动数学模型二化螟为F=-9.9459t2+158.54t+1920 （r=0.5648**），稻纵卷叶螟为M=-9545.5t2+338203t-2442510 （r=0.7741**），稻飞虱为N1=502.9t2-7097.8t+24522（1990—2006时段r=0.8050**）和N2=3122t2-133157t+1423018（2006—2012时段r=0.8191*）。一系列建模对提升当前单季稻害虫整体监测预警水平具有重要指导意义。

关键词：水稻；耕作制度；病虫种群；变动规律；数学模型

中图分类号：S435.112 文献标志码：A 论文编号：2013-0266

The Change Law and Mathematical Model Analysis of Rice Pest Population

After Changing ‘Double Cropping to ‘Single Cropping

Wang Enguo1， Liu Weiming2

（1Zhejiang Linhai Plant Protection Station， Linhai 317000， Zhejiang， China；

2Taizhou Vocational College of Science & Technology， Taizhou 318020， Zhejiang， China）

Abstract： In order to investigate the quantitative change law of rice pest population during the gradual changes of cultivation systems from double-cropping， the coexistence of single and double cropping to single-cropping， four monitoring points were designed to track and study the pest population structure and constitution number systematically between 1990 and 2012 using light trap and driving pests. The results were as follows： the number of pest species for rice was reduced to 8 from 9. The change law of pest population showed periodicity waveform curve change and the fluctuation cycles of W type and V type were 9-10 years and 4-5 years， respectively. While the fluctuation of different cultivation systems showed triangular change and the cultivation system of coexistence of single and double cropping was at a high operating model. Also， three mathematical models were constructed based on the numerical function simulation： striped rice borer [F=-9.9459t2+158.54t+1920 （r=0.5648**）]， rice leaf folder [M=-9545.5t2+338203t-2442510 （r=0.7741**）]， rice hopper [N1=502.9t2-7097.8t+24522 （from 1990 to 2006： r=0.8050**）] and N2=3122t2-133157t+1423018 （from 2006 to 2012： r=0.8191*）. All these mathematical models would have an important guiding significance for single cropping rice pest monitoring and warning.

Key words： Rice； Cultivation System； Pest Population； Change Law； Mathematical Model

0 引言

水稻是重要的粮食作物之一，生物灾害是影响水稻稳产、高产的重要因素之一。自20世纪90年代以来单双季稻混栽现象较为普遍，螟虫、稻飞虱、稻纵卷叶螟成为水稻生产的3大重要害虫，其发生面积占总病虫发生面积的70%左右[1]；随耕作制度、品种布局和栽培方式等变更，水稻螟虫、稻飞虱、稻纵卷叶螟3大害虫灾害频率上升[2-3]，对其灾发原因与防治措施研究较多[4-6]，且灾害预警方面较为薄弱[3，7-8]；对其种群数量季节性消长研究颇多[9-11]，但对水稻害虫长期运动尤其双季稻改单季稻状态下的运动规律缺乏深入研究[2，12]。台州地处浙江中部沿海，20世纪90年代种植业结构调整以来，水稻栽培制度逐渐从双季稻改向单季稻，尤其2007年前后推广‘甬优6号等超级稻栽培以来，单季稻超高产生产格局渐趋稳定[13]。……