Guo Xiangang

A new force - moderate Islam - is rising upon the ruins of the old collapsed regime in the Arab world, and it is playing a leading role in creating a new regional order. The new force grows out of the radical Islamic fundamentalist organizations,with such moderate traits as giving up the goal of establishing a fundamentalist thearchy, accepting the secular constitutional principles of the separation of church and state, and adopting peaceful means to organize parties to participate in the parliamentary and presidential elections so as to achieve the political aspiration of establishing the social justice.

The goals of the Islamic moderates are strategic instead of tactical because the world is in an era of fundamental change and globalization, and Arab people, who have already breathed the fresh air of the outside world, refuse to return to the darkness of the Middle Ages. Meanwhile terrorist policies adopted by Islamic extremists hurt a lot of innocent civilians and are condemned by a growing number of people, and this is why the market and appeal of terrorism in the Arab world are becoming smaller and smaller. Under this circumstance, Islamic moderates substantially adjust their policies and break up with former radical policies so as to adapt to the ongoing upheaval of the world. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, whose leader has become Egypt’s first democratically elected president, stands out in the rise of Islamic moderates. Egypt plays a leading role in the Arab world and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, the earliest fundamentalist organization, exists not only in Egypt but also with its widespread international branches throughout the Arab world. As a result the Brotherhood is of great influence and its change is felt across the region. At the same time Islamic forces in other Arab countries have begun to adjust their policies and become more rational, which shows that Islamic moderates have responded to the public opinion and flow along with the historic changes in the Arab world.

I.The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Keeping Pace with the Times

The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, established in 1928, aimed to overthrow the decadent feudal dynasty, to expel Western colonial invaders and to establish a theocratic Islamic regime by means of violence in Egypt and the whole Arab world. In the fight for national independence and liberation, the Brotherhood joined hands with the secular revolutionary forces fighting against the Israeli army, and it supported the Palestinian people’s war to regain the occupied Arab territories.

However, there was a wide gap of conceptions between them in establishing and ruling the country, and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood broke up with the secular revolutionary forces and even became their sworn enemy after they overthrew the rule of feudalism and achieved national independence.After the July Revolution in 1952, Egypt established a military strongman regime. The brotherhood was long suppressed;with no participation in elections; it was held hostage for a long time. The Muslim Brotherhood reflected on this situation and hardliners were gradually separated. Since the 1970s,the Brotherhood drew lessons from being the enemy with the secular regime and advocated the use of peaceful means to bring Egypt back to orthodox Islam. Since that period the moderates have embarked on the road of parliamentary politics. In 1984,the Muslim Brotherhood participated in the parliamentary election in the name of New Wafd Party and won nine seats in the People’s Assembly of Egypt, which marked its first entry into parliament. In the new parliamentary elections held in 1987, the Muslim Brotherhood formed an Islamic alliance with the Socialist Labor Party and the Liberal Party, and finally won 64 seats, 31 of which belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood.Considering the Muslim Brotherhood’s success in elections,the Mubarak government set obstacles to the Brotherhood’s continued participation in elections, claiming that they were involved in violence. Under the suppression of the secular regime, the Muslim Brotherhood kept calm. Instead of reacting fiercely, they gathered strength and waited for opportunities.In 2010, Egypt was plunged into turmoil and Mubarak was forced to step down. The Muslim Brotherhood, dormant for many years, seized this historic opportunity and emerged with its rational and nonviolent policies.

1. Organizing parties to participate in the election

In accordance with the present Egyptian law, the Muslim Brotherhood as a religious organization is not permitted to participate in parliamentary and presidential elections. In this situation members of the Muslim Brotherhood in their individual names established the Freedom and Justice Party on April 30, 2011 and legitimated their political identity. In November, the party won 40% of seats in the parliamentary election and the party’s general secretary, Kata Courtenay,became the new Speaker of the People’s Assembly. In June 2012, Morsi, Chairman of the Freedom and Justice Party, won the presidential election, which marked the Brotherhood’s preliminary victory by avoiding the legal obstacles that state that religious organizations cannot participate in elections.

2. Respecting secular constitutional principles with the separation of church and state

At the beginning of its establishment, the Muslim Brotherhood aimed to set up a theocratic Islamic regime and adopt Islamic law to govern society. But the situation in Egypt and the Middle East as a whole has undergone profound changes, and the original concept already lost its basis for achieving this goal,therefore the Brotherhood changed its previous intentions and has repeatedly pledged to abide by the secular constitutional principles so as to dispel all doubts among the Egyptian people and the whole international society that it will adopt Islamic fundamentalist policy when it comes to power. On May 31, 2012,Morsi promised at a news conference to pursue the“five-don’t policy.”First, that the Brotherhood would not seek one-party dominance; second, that it would not interfere with freedom of the press; third, that it would not neglect the interests of Christians; fourth, that it would not give special treatment to the army and the police; and fifth, that it would not force women to wear the veil. The“five-don’t policy”to some extent dispelled worries that the Brotherhood would pull Egypt back to the Middle Ages when it came to power.

As Essam el-Erian, deputy head of the Freedom and Justice Party, said in an interview by the Associated Press, the Muslim Brotherhood has no intention to impose Islamic values on the Egyptian people.“We represent a moderate and fair party,”el-Erian said of his Freedom and Justice Party.“We want to apply the basics of Shariah law in a fair way that respects human rights and personal rights.”Essam el-Erian made it clear that the Brotherhood does not share Nour’s more hard-line aspirations to strictly enforce Islamic codes in Egyptians’daily lives.“We respect all people in their choice of religion and life.”

3. Distancing itself from Islamic radicals

After winning the election, the Muslim Brotherhood denied that it would establish an“Islamic government”in alliance with Salafis, and said that its rule was still based on Islam but that it would guarantee that Islam would be accepted by the majority of Egyptians. After winning the election on July 25, 2012, on the basis of extensive consultations with all parties, Morsi appointed independent expert Shixisham Gan Diller as Prime Minister to organize his cabinet. On August 2,the new cabinet was organized and took the oath of office. It should be noted that there were only four members from the Muslim Brotherhood. Most refreshingly, there were two female ministers, one of whom was Christian. By contrast, no cabinet member was from the radical Islamic Salafist Al-Nour Party,demonstrating that President Morsi kept his words that his new cabinet would attach greater importance to the national interest rather than to partisan interests.

4. Acting within the law

On July 8, President Morsi made a decree that People’s Assembly, which was dissolved by the Supreme Constitutional Court on June 14, 2011, should resume to work before the new Assembly was elected. However, on July 10 the Supreme Constitutional Court ruled the Presidential Decree to resume the People’s Assembly is unconstitutional. The next day President Morsi issued a statement that he would respect the ruling of the Supreme Constitutional Court, and endeavor to prevent conflict and contradiction between national institutions. He emphasized he did this because Egypt was a state ruled by law. Meanwhile, on August 12 Morsi, as the popularly elected president, took resolute action to reshuffle the military leadership who took power after former President Mubarak stepped down by removing high-ranking officials from their posts,like Defense Minister Tantawi, the Chief General Staff Anan,Navy Commander Ma Mishi, Anti-air Force Commander Saif,the Air Force Commander Hafiz, abolishing the Supplemental Statement of the Constitution issued on June 17, 2012 by the military forces to empower the military to make law, and thus returning the legislative power to people.

5. Adopting a pragmatic attitude and persuade the United Stated to trust the Muslim Brotherhood

On April 8, 2012, the Muslim Brotherhood sent a team to the United States to advocate its moderate Islamic views. In the United States, the Muslim Brotherhood committed itself to respecting international agreements signed by Egypt, and to not hold a referendum on the Camp David accords signed with Israel. Morsi was very cautious for the sensitive issue of lifting the Gaza blockade. He just promised to the Palestinian Hamas that he would take measures to alleviate the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza, but did not promise to completely open the Rafah port. Meanwhile after winning the presidential election, Morsi decided to visit the United States. The Muslim Brotherhood’s gestures to show goodwill to the United States are aimed to reduce American concerns, continue to receive the financial assistance from the United States, and revive the Egyptian economy.

In face of the political changes in Egypt and the victory of the Muslim Brotherhood, the United States, which once claimed that they would never engage in dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood, also changed its attitude. In January 2012 the U.S. Ambassador to Egypt officially called on the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, acknowledging that they had made many mistakes in support of the Mubarak regime. On July 14, U.S.Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Egypt and met with President Morsi. They had talks on the U.S.-Egyptian relations and regional issues, and the United States expressed its support for Egypt’s political transition. The U.S. support for the Muslim Brotherhood showed that the rational policy adopted by the Muslim Brotherhood had borne fruitful results.

II.The Rise of Islamic Moderates in Other Arab Countries

Similar to the change of the political structure in Egypt,moderate Islamic forces in other Arab countries also seized their golden opportunities, stepping onto the stage of history and playing a major role.

In Tunisia where turmoil triggered the Arab Spring, in October,2011, the moderate Islamic political party“Renaissance”won 40% of seats in the Constitutional Assembly elections and became the largest party. On December 12, Moncef Marzouk,supported by Islamic party, was elected president.

After its victory, because of the religious nature of the“Renaissance,”secular people in Tunisia worried that the new regime would implement Islamic law, which would endanger the secular principles of the separation of church and state. In response, Khannouchi, leader of the“Renaissance,”repeatedly promised that a secular Tunisia would not adopt a theocratic state model like Iran, but would instead follow the example of Turkey’s development model.

The same historical process happened in Morocco. On November 25, 2011, the Islamic Justice and Development Party did well in the parliamentary elections, winning a 30%approval rate, and it became the biggest party with 107 seats out of a total 395. Then the party’s general secretary Kieran was officially appointed Prime Minister by the King of Morocco.In the early 1980s, Kieran changed his radical political stance.He accepted the Morocco Constitution, and created a moderate Islamic political party called the“Reform and Revival Movement.”In 1998, the“Reform and Revival Movement”was renamed into the Justice and Development Party, which supports the monarchy, opposes violence and terrorism, and adopts the idea of reforming society progressively. In the parliamentary election, the Justice and Development Party claimed to improve the minimum wages and pensions, emphasize the combat against corruption, encourage the spread of moderate Islamic doctrines, and the defend democratic Islamic kingdom. In the absence of an absolute majority in the parliamentary election,the Justice and Development Party expressed its willingness to form a joint cabinet with other political parties. It was due to its moderate Islamic stance that the people expressed their support by votes.

On July 1, 2011, Morocco, with the people’s support, held a referendum on the new draft constitution on limiting the power of the king and expanding the power of parliament. About 98%of the populace voted in favor of it. In accordance with the new constitution, the King gave up some of his power, but remained the head of state, supreme commander of the armed forces and religious leader, while the Prime Minister came from the leading political party in the parliamentary election and had the power to dissolve Parliament and dismiss ministers. The new constitution reflects the aspirations of the people, and Morocco has embarked on a stable road of parliamentary politics and avoids the unrest witnessed in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

There is no exception in Libya. After Gaddafi’s 40 years of secular rule and the long-term suppression on the Muslim Brotherhood established in 1949, the influence of Islam in Libya is unabated. After the fall of Gaddafi’s regime, on March 3, 2012 the Muslim Brotherhood officially established the Justice and Construction Party, and ranked second in the parliamentary election held in July. With its moderate Islamic nature, this party advocates secular separation of powers, respects human rights and freedom of the press, and supports women in public office.

With the demise of the Gaddafi regime, Islamic influence was released, and even the secular party“National Power Alliance”which ranked first in elections dared not look down upon it. By labeling his party as moderately Islamic before and after election,its leader Jibril said after the election victory that the law will be based on Sharia, which reflected the prevalence of moderate Islamic forces in Libya.“National Power Alliance”won the most seats out of the total 80 seats for party candidates. Among the winners of 120 seats for independent candidates, quite a few were supporters of the Justice and Construction Party. They will play an important role in the future development of Libya.

III. Reasons for the Rise of Islamic Moderates

With the collapse of Arab secular regimes, Islamic moderates seized their golden opportunity, gaining power through elections and practicing their ideals. The change of Islamic forces is not out of expediency, but rather out of strategic choices made in the face of a changing situation.

First, the corruption, family ruling and pro-U.S. stances of the secular regimes resulted in economic downturns, high unemployment rates, and a decline in the standard of people’s living, which, in turn, caused strong dissatisfaction among people. The rulers of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen have stepped down amid protests and demonstrations by the people,while the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been out of power for many years, has taken advantage of the military strongman regimes’setbacks to come to power.

Second, extremist forces engaging in terrorist activities and killing massive innocent civilians - particularly the 9/11 attacks- evoked world anger and thus lost popular support, forcing Islamic moderates to reflect. In the eyes of Islamic extremists,so long as they continue to take terrorist activities, they will force the West to meet their political goals of resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict, returning the holy city of Jerusalem and other lost territories. However, the irrational measures undertaken by terrorists caused resentment and abhorrence of the majority of the people in the Muslim world. These measures turned out to discredit Islam rather than liberating the occupied territories.

In the face of this reality, rational Islamic forces realize that a return to the theocracy of the Middle Ages is incompatible with the contemporary society and difficult to be accepted by the majority.

In addition, mankind has entered modern society. Economic globalization makes the Arab world closely connected with other regions, and the people’s demand for democracy and freedom is irresistible. In the face of this reality, rational Islamic forces realize that a return to the theocracy of the Middle Ages is incompatible with the contemporary society and difficult to be accepted by the majority. Therefore, the Islamic moderates distance themselves from the extremists and pursue realist and rational policies.

Third, religious forces could resolve the challenges in the local region only if they could reach a compromise with secular forces. Since the mid-1950s, secular and religious forces have been in long-term conflicts. The secular military strongman regimes denied the legitimacy of the existence of the Islamic fundamentalist organizations, while the underground Islamic extremist forces adopted terrorist means to confront the secular regime. The conflicts between the religious and the secular forces have undermined the strength of every country in the region, and they have consequently caused Arab countries to fail to solve their domestic economic and livelihood issues; they have also proved unable to regain the holy city and the lost territories occupied by Israel.

The Arab world must cease its internal conflicts and integrate forces it wants to cope with and solve serious challenges. At present, secular forces suffer a serious setback while religious extremism is quite unpopular, which urges the Islamic moderates to take moderate policies and seek a correct path of development. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood and the military representing secular forces accommodate each other.The military recognizes the reality that Morsi was elected president and they obey the adjustment of the military leadership by President Morsi. President Morsi also showed respect of the military by appointing Defense Minister Tantawi,Chief of the General Staff Anan as presidential adviser and awarding them with the highest honor“Nile Medal”after they were dismissed from office and ordered to retire. At the same time, President Morsi appointed the former Navy Commander Ma Mishi, commander of the Air Defense Force Saif and Air Force commander Hafiz as chairman of the Board of Directors of the Suez Canal Authority, AOI Chairman of the Board and the Minister of State for Military Production respectively. In Tunisia and Morocco, religious forces and secular forces are also seeking cooperation so as to jointly govern the country. This situation is the outcome of struggles and compromises between religious and secular forces, and it is also an inevitable choice for both sides to adapt to the changes at home and abroad.

Fourth, modernization in the Arab world has already made progress, and the backward concept in the medieval ages has been constrained. After winning the independence, Arab countries established modern educational systems and popularized the compulsory education in primary schools. Take Egypt as an example, it now has altogether 42,184 primary schools, junior high schools, high schools and secondary technical schools.Of these schools, 37,218 schools are run by the state with 15.2 million students, and 4,966 schools are run privately.There are 34 universities including prestigious universities like Cairo University, Alexandria University, Ain Shamus University,Al-Azhar University, and university enrollment stands at 32%.In the meantime, in 1907 there were only 609,000 people who were educated. The popularity of education has enlightened the local people and held them from backward religious ideas.

Progress has already been made in political modernization.Since representative government was adopted in Egypt in 1923,a parliamentary election system has been in existence though the monarchy and the military strongman regimes repeatedly infringed upon its free operation. With the advancement of education and political modernization, more and more people support the pluralization of the political system and culture, and tolerance among different religions. Such changes have pushed the Muslim Brotherhood to turn from radicalism to moderation,and it began to emphasize that Islam is all-inclusive. Amr Zaki,a candidate from the Muslim Brotherhood who participated in the parliamentary elections, once in a rally stood on the podium with a female community organizer and a neighborhood Christian priest.“Your church,”he told the priest in welcome,“is valued by us as much as our mosques.”

Fifth, the Muslim Brotherhood is well organized with a strong base among the masses. Ever since its establishment in 1928, the Muslim Brotherhood has undertaken utmost efforts to set up schools, hospitals and charities, winning widespread approval and hundreds of thousands of members,and accumulating rich experiences in the long-suppressed political environment. In addition, mosques across the country retain possession of real estate,industries and abundant capital,which provides material a basis for the Brotherhood to relieve the poor and support social welfare.This kind of organizational advantage stands out after Mubarak’s regime collapsed, and it soon brought election victory. The Muslim Brotherhood and the moderate Islamic organizations in other Arab countries also have considerable strength, ability and experiences.

The Turkish model has increasingly become the choice of Islamic forces in the Arab world.

Sixth, the successful experiences of the Turkish Justice and Development Party established a good example. In 2002, the Justice and Development Party, a moderate Islamic party in Turkey, won the national election. It exercised reforms and economic development, improved the people’s living standards,properly handled its relationship with secular forces, especially with the military, and won more support from the people. As a result it ruled the country continuously and set a good example for the Arab world. The Turkish model has increasingly become the choice of Islamic forces in the Arab world.

IV. The Regional and International Effects

Islamic moderates are officially stepping onto the stage in important Arab countries, and this is the most significant event since national independence was attained in Middle East. This development has not only changed the region’s political ecology and internal power balance, but also caused strong impact to the current world structure.

1. The structure of the Middle East will change

At the moment, although Islamic moderates only play leading roles in Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco and Libya, the phenomenon is likely to spread to other Arab countries because in the current Arab world turmoil, all countries are faced with similar problems and challenges. Therefore, under the impact of changes in countries like Egypt and with the encouragement of the Muslim Brotherhood, it’s an inevitable trend for the Islamic moderates to play important roles in most of the Arab countries. In future,with the advance of Arab change, Arab Islamic moderates will achieve impressive performance in parliamentary and presidential elections.

2. Contradictions between the Islamic extremist forces and the moderates will deepen

With the rise of the Islamic moderates, the Islamic religious forces in the Middle East find their correct way to play their political role, and a growing number of devout Muslims will get rid of the influence of the radical forces and be attracted to Islamic moderates. In order to restore power, Islamic extremists will have fierce struggle with the moderates. On August 5, 2012,Islamic Jihad attacked checkpoints in the Egyptian Rafah area in an attempt to launch cross-border attacks against Israel.They seemed to want to fight Israel, but actually they tried to win the support of Arab people and compete with the moderate forces for the popular opinion. President Morsi responded quickly and urged swift punishment for the attackers.

3. Arab-Israeli relations will face new adjustments

After the cold war, a pro-U.S. policy was adopted by the majority of Arab countries. Secular governments of the countries in the region made few efforts to support the liberation of the Palestinian people, despite their vocal support. As it did not face serious security challenges, Israel had no intention to truly promote the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and refused to make concessions on such issues as the status of Jerusalem,the future Israeli-Palestinian borders, refugee returns, the establishment of a Palestinian state, and other Arab-Israeli peace talks. That is why the Arab-Israeli peace talks were confronted with severe difficulties. When the Islamic moderates came to power, the relatively calm situation between the Arabs and the Israelis was broken. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood will now offer more material and spiritual assistance to the Palestinian people,though it promised to abide by agreements signed by the former government and the international community, including Israel.On July 23, 2012, Egypt partly lifted a 5-year blockade imposed on the Gaza Strip and allowed Palestinians to enter freely into Egypt without security clearance or visas. This indicates that under the leadership of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, the Arab world will gradually offer more support for the Palestinian people to regain lost territories. In the face of strengthened solidarity among the Arab people, the Israeli government has become very anxious, and it has adjusted its policy to avoid getting bogged down.

4. The U.S. influence in the Middle East will weaken.

After the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the majority of secular Arab regimes maintained close relations with the United States, and they adopted policies of strengthening the suppression of radical forces in the region and coexisting peacefully with Israel - America’s closest ally. U.S.influence in the Middle East has risen, but its influence in this region can hardly remain with the rise of the Islamic moderates because the Muslim brotherhood and other Moderates have expressed their abhorrence over American support for Israel.Subject to the constraints of a domestic Jewish lobby, it is difficult for the United States to change its pro-Israel stance on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. When it comes to issues like the status of Jerusalem, the Jewish settlements and Palestinian statehood, the U.S. government, Republican or Democratic,will earnestly impose effective pressures on Israel. Therefore,the conflicts between the Islamic moderates and the United States will deepen and break sooner or later, which will weaken U.S. dominance in the Middle East. Henry Kissinger seemed to predict this development in his article“A new doctrine of intervention?”published on March 31, 2012 in The Washington Post. He warned:“The United States should be prepared to deal with democratically elected Islamist governments.”

“The United States should be prepared to deal with democratically elected Islamist governments.”

- Henry Kissinger

V. Conclusion

With the rise of the Islamic moderates, the Arab world has come to an important turning point. At the critical moment of historical transition, Islamic moderates are faced with huge pressures like developing their national economies, creating jobs, and general livelihood. At the same time, they will encounter the constraints of secular and radical religious forces. As long as they continue to adhere to a path of reconciliation with secular forces, follow the constitutional principle of separation of church and state,and pursue social justice through peaceful means, they will create a glorious new historical chapter for the Arab world.